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Dr. Hiro (Hiroyuki) Ito

Professor of Economics

Ph.D. Economics, University of California, Santa Cruz;

M.A. Economics, UCSC;

M.A. International Relations, Johns Hopkins University;

B.A. Law, Waseda University, Tokyo

Address:

Portland State University

506 SW Mill Street

Urban Center Building, #450

Portland, Oregon 97201

Tel: 503-725-3930

Fax: 503-725-3945

Email: ito@pdx.edu

Curriculum Vita

略歴

Other Appointments

Co-Editor, Economics – The Open-Access, Open-Assessment Journal, 2021 – present

Associate Editor, Journal of International Money and Finance, 2013 – present

Associate Editor, Journal of International Commerce, Economics, and Policy, 2009 – present

The 2021 updated Chinn-Ito index (Chinn and Ito, 2006, 2008) is available here (Updated 11/14/2023)

The data on the currency composition of foreign exchange reserves (Ito and McCauley, JIMF 2019 and Chinn, Ito, and McCauley, NBER WP 2021) is now available here.

The Trilemma Indexes (Aizenman, Chinn, and Ito) are updated and available here (Updated 8/31/2021). The instructions and program files to recreate the indexes are available here (10/12/2016).

CURRENT RESEARCH AND PUBLICATIONS

New Papers and Writings

"Measuring Financial Integration: More Data, More Currencies, More Expectations," (with Menzie Chinn), NBER Working Paper series #31505. March 2023.

"Evolution of the International from the Perspective of the Trilemma" (with M. Kawai) In ed. M. Kawai. Forthcoming in Financial Review. Policy Research Institute, Japan Ministry of Finance (2023).

"The Global Monetary System and Use of Regional Currencies in ASEAN+3" (with M. Kawai) In eds. D. Guinigundo, M. Kawai, C.Y. Park, and R.S. Rajan. Redefining Strategic Routes to Financial Resilience in ASEAN+3. Asian Development Bank (2022).

“Dollar Dominance in Cross-border Bank Loans and Its Response to Uncertainties,” (with Ying Xu), RIETI Discussion Paper (April 2023 23-E-028). Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry.

"The Impacts of Crises on the Trilemma Configurations" (with J. Aizenman and M. Chinn) Forthcoming in Open Economies Review. Also available as NBER Working Paper No. 30406.

“A Disaster Underinsurance Puzzle: Home Bias in Disaster Risk” (with Robert McCauley, BIS) IMF Economic Review (2022). https://link.springer.com/article/10.1057/s41308-022-00172-w

"Emerging Market Economies’ Challenge: Managing the Yield Curve in a Financially Globalized World," (with Phuong Tran). Open Economies Review (2022).

"Do Central Banks Rebalance Their Currency Shares?" (with M. Chinn and R. McCauley). Journal of International Money and Finance. Volume 122, April 2022, 102557. Also available as NBER Working Paper No. w29190 (December 2021).

"Central Bank Swap Arrangements in the COVID-19 Crisis" (with J. Aizenman and G. K. Pasricha). Journal of International Money and Finance. Volume 122, April 2022, 102555. Also available as NBER Working Paper No. w28585 (December 2021).

"Currency Composition of Foreign Exchange Reserves," (with Robert McCauley). Journal of International Money and Finance, Volume 102 (April 2020, 102104).

Peer-reviewed Journal Articles

“The Impacts of Crises on the Trilemma Configurations” (with J. Aizenman and M. Chinn) Forthcoming in Open Economies Review. Also available as NBER Working Paper No. 30406.

“A Disaster Underinsurance Puzzle: Home Bias in Disaster Risk” (with Robert McCauley, BIS) IMF Economic Review (2022). https://doi.org/10.1057/s41308-022-00172-w

"Emerging Market Economies’ Challenge: Managing the Yield Curve in a Financially Globalized World," (with Phuong Tran). Open Economies Review (2022).

"A Requiem for “Blame It on Beijing”: Interpreting Rotating Global Current Account Surpluses" (with Menzie Chinn, U of Wisconsin) Journal of International Money and Finance. Viewable online. Also available at VOX CEPR Policy Portal (November 21, 2019).

“Post Covid-19 Exit Strategies and Emerging Markets Economic Challenges” (with J. Aizenman). Review of International Economics, Volume 31, Issue 1, p. 1 – 34. (February 2023). Also available as NBER Working Paper No. w27966.

"U.S. Macro Policies and Global Economic Challenges (with Joshua Aizenman)." East Asian Economic Review Vol. 24, No. 4 (December 2020) 469-495, https://dx.doi.org/10.11644/KIEP.EAER.2020.24.4.388.

"The Political-Economy Trilemma," (with Joshua Aizenman). Forthcoming in Open Economies Review. vol. 31(5), pp. 945-975 (2020).

"Clamoring for Greenbacks: Explaining the Resurgence of the US Dollar in International Debt," (with Cesar Rodriguez) International Finance, https://doi-org.proxy.lib.pdx.edu/10.1111/infi.12370 (February 2020).

"Financial Spillovers and Macroprudential Policies" (with J. Aizenman and M. Chinn) Open Economic Review, 31, 529–563 (2020).

"Currency Composition of Foreign Exchange Reserves," (with Robert McCauley). BIS Working Papers #828 (December 2019). Journal of International Money and Finance, Volume 102 (April 2020, 102104).

"A Key currency View of Global Imbalances," (with Robert McCauley, BIS,). Journal of International Money and Finance, 94 (2019), p.97 – 115. Also available as BIS WP No 762 (2018).

"The Interest Rate Effect on Private Saving: Alternative Perspectives" (with J. Aizenman and Y.W. Cheung). Journal of International Commerce, Economics and Policy, Vol. 10, No. 01, 1950002 (2019). Also available as NBER Working Paper No. 22872 (November 2016). Its summary is available at VOXEU.

"Balance Sheet Effects on Monetary and Financial Spillovers: The East Asian Crisis Plus 20" (with J. Aizenman and M. Chinn), Journal of International Money and Finance, vol. 74, pages 258-282 (2017). Also available as NBER Working Paper #22737 (October 2016).

"Trade Invoicing in Major Currencies in the 1970s-1990s: Lessons for Renminbi Internationalization," (with Masahiro Kawai, University of Tokyo). Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Volume 42, December 2016, Pages 123–145. Its summary is available at VOXEU.

"Monetary Policy Spillovers and the Trilemma in the New Normal: Periphery Country Sensitivity to Core Country Conditions," , Journal of International Money and Finance, Volume 68, November 2016, Pages 298–330. Also available as NBER Working Paper #21128. Its summary is available at VOXEU.

Dataset for the main regression (STATA) (Excel)

"Emerging Market Currency Composition of Reserves, Denomination of Trade and Currency Movements," (with Robert McCauley and Tracy Chan, BIS) Emerging Markets Review 25, 16-29. (October 2015).

"International Reserves Before and After the Global Crisis: Is There No End to Hoarding?" (with J. Aizenman and Y.W. Cheung). Journal of International Money and Finance Volume 52 (April 2015), Pages 102–126. Also available as NBER Working Paper #20386 (Revised, August 2014). Its summary is available at VOXEU.

"The More Divergent, the Better?: Lessons on Trilemma Policies, Crises, and Output Losses for Asia" (with Joshua Aizenman). Asian Development Review Volume 31, Number 2 (September 2014).

"Living with the Trilemma Constraint: Relative Trilemma Policy Divergence, Crises, and Output Losses for Developing Countries" (with Joshua Aizenman). Journal of International Money and Finance 49 p.28-51, (May 2014). Also available as NBER Working Paper #19448.

"A Forensic Analysis of Global Imbalances" (with M. Chinn and B. Eichengreen), Oxford Economic Papers (2014) 66 (2): 465-490, also available as NBER Working Paper Series, #17513 (October 2011).

"The 'Impossible Trinity' Hypothesis in an Era of Global Imbalances: Measurement and Testing" (with Joshua Aizenman and Menzie Chinn). Review of International Economics, 21(3), 447–458 (August 2013). Its summary is available at VOXEU.

"China and Global Imbalances from a View of Sectorial Reforms" (with Ulrich Volz). Review of International Economics, Volume 21, Issue 1, pages 57–71 (May 2013).

"Trilemma Policy Convergence Patterns and Output Volatility" (with J. Aizenman). NBER Working Paper #17806. North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Volume 23, Issue 3, December 2012, Pages 269–285 (December 2012).

"Surfing the Waves of Globalization: Asia and Financial Globalization in the Context of the Trilemma," (with Joshua Aizenman and Menzie Chinn), Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, vol. 25(3), p. 290 – 320 (September 2011).

"The Emerging Global Financial Architecture: Tracing and Evaluating the New Patterns of the Trilemma's Configurations" (with Joshua Aizenman and Menzie Chinn), Journal of International Money and Finance, Vol. 29, No. 4, p. 615-641 (2010).

"Cross-sectional analysis on the determinants of international reserves accumulation" (with Yin-Wong Cheung). International Economic Journal, Vol. 23, No. 4, p. 447-481, (December 2009).

"U.S. Current Account Debate, With Japan then, with China now". Journal of Asian Economics, Volume 20, Issue 3, p. 294-313 (May 2009).

"East Asia and Global Imbalances: Saving, Investment, and Financial Development" (with Menzie Chinn). In Financial Sector Development in the Pacific Rim, edited by Takatoshi Ito and Andrew Rose, National Bureau of Economic Research-East Asian Seminar on Economics (NBER-EASE) Volume 18 (April 2009).

"A New Measure of Financial Openness" (with Menzie Chinn). Journal of Comparative Policy Analysis, Volume 10, Issue 3, p. 309-322 (September 2008).

The KAOPEN data are available here.

"Global Current Account Imbalances: American Fiscal Policy versus East Asian Savings" (with Menzie Chinn). Review of International Economics, Volume 16, Issue 3, p. 479-498 (August 2008).

"Price-based Measurement of Financial Globalization: A Cross-Country Study of Interest Rate Parity" (with Menzie Chinn). Pacific Economic Review, Vol. 12, Issue 4 (October, 2007).

"Current Account Balances, Financial Development and Institutions: Assaying the World 'Savings Glut'," (with Menzie Chinn). Journal of International Money and Finance, Volume 26, Issue 4, p. 546-569 (June 2007), also available as NBER Working Paper No. 11761 (November 2005).

"Financial Development in Asia: Thresholds, Institutions, and the Sequence of Liberalization". North American Journal of Economics and Finance, issue 17(3) (December 2006).

"What Matters for Financial Development? Capital Controls, Institutions, and Interactions," (with Menzie Chinn). Journal of Development Economics, Volume 81, Issue 1, Pages 163-192 (October 2006). The longer version is available as NBER Working Paper No. 11370 (May 2005). The previous version is "Capital Account Liberalization, Institutions and Financial Development: Cross Country Evidence," (with Menzie Chinn) NBER Working Paper Series, #8967 (June 2002). This paper has been awarded for being one of the 10 most cited papers published by Journal of Development Economics over the 2005-09 period.

The updated KAOPEN data series are available. Visit this site.

"Does China Compete with Japan in the US Market? What About Other East Asian Countries? A Triangular Trade Approach" (with Yushi Yoshida). Asian Pacific Business Review, Volume 12, Number 3, p. 285-307 (July 2006).

Non-peer Reviewed Articles, Book Chapters

“Dollar Dominance in Cross-border Bank Loans and Its Response to Uncertainties,” (with Ying Xu), RIETI Discussion Paper (April 2023 23-E-028). Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry.

“Yen’s Exchange Rate Movements and Japan’s External Position (円の為替変動と日本の国際投資ポジション),” Securities Analysists Journal, Association of Securities Analysts, June of 2023.

"Evolution of the International from the Perspective of the Trilemma" (with M. Kawai) In ed. M. Kawai. Forthcoming in Financial Review. Policy Research Institute, Japan Ministry of Finance (2023).

"Capital Flows and Exchange Rate Policies (originally titled as: “East Asian Economies and Financial Globalization In the Post-Crisis World)" (with J. Aizenman). In Volz, U. P. Morgan, and N. Yoshino eds., Routledge Handbook of Banking and Finance in Asia (2019). Also available as NBER Working Paper #22268 (May 2016). Its summary is available at VOXEU.

"Alternative Index of Financial Development" (with M. Kawai), Public Policy Review, Vol. 14, No. 5 (2018) (Japanese version is available here).

"Monetary Policy in Asia and the Pacific In the Post, Post-Crisis Era." In Chen, K. Y. and W. Dobson, eds., Financial Development and Cooperation in Asia and the Pacific, Pacific Trade and Development (PAFTAD) Conference Series 36, London and New York: Routledge (January 2015).

"The Rise of the 'Redback' and China's Capital Account Liberalization: An Empirical Analysis on the Determinants of Invoicing Currencies" (with Menzie D. Chinn). In Eichengreen, B. and M. Kawai, Eds., Renminbi Internationalization: Achievements, Prospects, and Challenges (January 2015).

"North Pacific Integration from an International Financial Perspective," In Morrison, C.E. and Noland, M. Eds., Strengthening North Pacific Cooperation (2015).

"International reserves before and after the Global Crisis: Is There No End to Hoarding?" VOX CEPR's Policy Portal (September 13, 2014).

"A New Crisis for Asia's Emerging Economies," East Asian Forum, Australian National University (May 2014).

"The Impossible Trinity, the International Monetary Framework and the Pacific Rim" (with J. Aizenman). In I. N. Kaur and N. Singh ed., Handbook of the Economics of the Pacific Rim (Oxford University Press, 2013).

"Rebalancing of the World Economy and Asia" (with Menzie Chinn) In I. N. Kaur and N. Singh ed., Handbook of the Economics of the Pacific Rim (Oxford University Press, 2013).

"Rebalancing the Chinese Economy" (with Ulrich Volz), China Forex, a magazine published by China's State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) (May 2013).

"Correcting China's macroeconomic imbalances" (with Ulrich Volz), East Asian Forum, Australian National University (April 2013).

"The Trilemma Challenge for SEACEN Member Economies: New Measures of the Trilemma Hypothesis and Their Implications on Asia" (with Masahiro Kawai). In V. Pontines and R. Siregar eds., Exchange Rate Appreciation, Capital Flows and Excess Liquidity: Adjustment and Effectiveness of Policy Responses. (June 2012).

"Financial Globalization and China" (with Menzie Chinn). In the Encyclopedia of Financial Globalization, edited by Gerard Caprio, et al. (Elsevier). (2012).

"The Financial Crisis, Rethinking of the Global Financial Architecture, and the Trilemma," (with Joshua Aizenman and Menzie Chinn). In P. Morgan and M. Kawai, eds., Monetary and Currency Policy Issues for Asia: Implications of the Global Financial Crisis, Edward Elgar (February 2012).

"Rebalancing Global Growth" (with Barry Eichengreen and Menzie Chinn). In Canuto, O and D. M. Leipzige, eds. Ascent after Decline: Regrowing Economic Growth (Jan. 2012).

"Trilemma Configurations in Asia in an Era of Financial Globalization" (with Joshua Aizenman and Menzie Chinn), In China and Asia in the Global Economy, edited by Yin-Wong Cheung and Guonan Ma (July 2011).

"Assessing the emerging global financial architecture: Measuring the trilemma's configurations over time," VOX CEPR's Policy Portal (January 9, 2009).

"Liquidity Trap" The Princeton Encyclopedia of the World Economy, Princeton University Press, edited by Kenneth Reinert and Ramkishen Rajan (December 2008).

"Financial Repression" The Princeton Encyclopedia of the World Economy, Princeton University Press, edited by Kenneth Reinert and Ramkishen Rajan (December 2008).

"Expenditure Switching and Expenditure Changing" The Princeton Encyclopedia of the World Economy, Princeton University Press, edited by Kenneth Reinert and Ramkishen Rajan (December 2008).

"Hoarding of International Reserves: A Comparison of the Asian and Latin American Experiences" (with Yin-Wong Cheung). In Rajan, R.S., S. Thangavelu and R.A. Parinduri, Eds., Monetary, Exchange Rate and Financial Issues and Policies in Asia, Singapore: World Scientific Press (December 2008).

"American Fiscal Profligacy or East Asian Saving Glut? Appraisal of the Global Current Account Imbalances." International Reserves in Middle- and Low-Income Countries: Background of Recent Accumulation, Management, Monetary and Exchange Rate Policy, and Outlook edited by FLAR (Latin American Reserve Fund) (December 2007).

Book Reviews

"Book review on China and Asia: Economic and Financial Interactions edited by Yin-Wong Cheung and Kar-Yiu Wong, Routledge Studies in the Modern World Economy, 2009). Pacific Affairs, Volume 84, No. 2 (June 2011).

Book Review on Monetary Policy with Very Low Inflation in the Pacific Rim (Edited by Takatoshi Ito and Andy Rose, National Bureau of Economic Research, 2006). International Review of Economics and Finance, Volume 17, Issue 3, p. 492-494 (2008).

Other Publication

Study Guide to Accompany International Economics: Theory and Policy, by Paul Krugman, Maurice Obstfeld, and Marc J. Meltiz, with Michael Klein, Linda Goldberg, and Jay Shambaugh. Harper-Collins: New York (2011).

Working Papers

"East Asian Economies and Financial Globalization In the Post-Crisis World," (with J. Aizenman), NBER Working Paper #22268 (May 2016).

"The Determinants of the Trilemma Constraint" (with M. Kawai). Mimeo (November 2013).

"Living with the Trilemma Constraint: Relative Trilemma Policy Divergence, Crises, and Output Losses for Developing Countries" (with Joshua Aizenman), NBER Working Paper #19448 (September 2013).

"New Measures of the Trilemma Hypothesis and Their Implications for Asia" (with Masahiro Kawai). ADBI Working Paper 381. (February 2012).

"The Persistence and Determinants of Current Account Balances: The Implications for Global Rebalancing" (with Erica Clower). ADBI Working Paper 400. (December 2012). Under revision.

"An Analysis of the Effects of Financial Market Imperfections on Indian Firms' Exporting Behavior," (with Akiko Terada-Hagiwara). Mimeo (July 2011), under review.

"Assessing the Emerging Global Financial Architecture: Measuring the Trilemma's Configurations over Time" (with Joshua Aizenman and Menzie Chinn), NBER Working Paper Series, #14533 (December 2008, updated in April 2009).

"Is Financial Openness a Bad Thing? An Analysis on the Correlation Between Financial Liberalization and the Output Performance of Crisis-Hit Economies", UCSC Working Paper series #4-23 (August 2004).

"Was Japan's Real Interest Rate Really Too High during the 1990s? The Role of the Zero Interest Rate Bound and Other Factors," UCSC Working Paper Series (November 2003)

COURSES I HAVE TAUGHT

Undergraduate