PA 551 Professor
Brian Stipak
Fall 2009 e-mail:
stipakb@pdx.edu
Tues. 6:40-9:20 http://web.pdx.edu/~stipakb
COURSE SYLLABUS: PA 551
Analytic Methods 1
Read this
syllabus carefully if you are taking this course. It defines some of your responsibilities and some of my
responsibilities.
The purpose of the PA551/PA552 analytic methods sequence
is to introduce you to statistical thinking and analytic and data gathering
methods used widely in the public sector.
My versions of these courses also include computer exercises using
spreadsheet programs and statistical analysis programs. The main goal of these courses is to help
you to acquire an understanding of the use of analytic information that you
should have as a professional public administrator. Although some of you may become or may already be analysts, for
most of you the raison d'etre of these courses is to improve your
professional capabilities as consumers of analytic information.
The PA551/PA552 courses are primarily for MPA students,
but any of you from other programs are welcome if these courses fit your needs.
You need not worry that these courses will be highly
technical, since they are at a low technical level appropriate for most MPA
students[1]. PA551 has no prerequisite and presumes no
prior knowledge of statistics.
For those of you taking this course reluctantly and only
because it is required, I challenge you to become interested and to increase
your professional skills and knowledge.
Course
Materials
Required:Jane E. Miller, The Chicago Guide to Writing
about Numbers, ISBN 0-226-52631-3
Optional:Mario F. Triola, Elementary Statistics Using
Excel, ISBN 0-321-36513-5
My web site
(http://web.pdx.edu/~stipakb):
•PA551 help page (Click on Resources/help, then PA551
Help)
•PA551 folder, to download files for assignments,
handouts, etc.
•Data folder, to download data files and documentation
for data files
•Student resources/help page, look under the "Data,
Statistics, Statistical Computing" section and the "Spreadsheet
Skills" section
Other available on-line
resources (link to them via my web pages):
•Statsoft Electronic Statistics Textbook
•The Research Methods Knowledge Base
•Triola textbook web sites
There are many other
textbooks that could help you learn the course material. One example is Kenneth
J. Meier and Jeffrey L. Brudney, Applied Statistics for Public
Administration.
I recommend having the
Triola, Meier and Brudney, or some other beginning statistics textbook
available to help you learn the statistical techniques covered in this course.
Course
Requirements
The first requirement is to learn the course material
that is covered in class. It is your
responsibility to use a combination of learning from lectures, on-line
resources, and textbooks listed in the course syllabus or other textbooks, that
works for you to learn the required course material. There will be an in-class
midterm examination and an in-class final examination on that course material.
Topics covered on the examinations are listed on my web site.
The second requirement is to complete the computer
assignments and any other homework assignments.
Computer
Exercises
The course will include some computer exercises and required
computer assignments. We will use three
types of software: 1) spreadsheet
software (Excel), 2) statistical analysis software (SPSS), and
3) statistical software accessed via a web interface (SDA interface). The reason for using spreadsheet software is
that spreadsheet programs provide a versatile analytical tool for managers and
analysts in public agencies. The reason
for using statistical analysis software is to provide an appreciation for the
power and utility of more specialized analytic software; also, SPSS will prove
useful for doing data analysis exercises, and for doing independent data
analysis projects in the PA552 class.
Computer software availability: At PSU SPSS and Excel are available for use in the various on‑campus
computer labs. Excel will also be on almost any computer to which you have
access. I recommend that you do SPSS work using the on-campus computers. If you
greatly desire to install SPSS on your own computer, you can 1) purchase the
full version of SPSS, called SPSS Graduate Pack, for a discounted educational
price, 2) rent SPSS very cheaply (get the Graduate Pack Base), 3) buy Student
SPSS, or 4) install a temporary free demo version of SPSS (See my web site for
more information on these options). Student SPSS differs from the full version
in that 1) it is limited to a maximum of 50 variables and 1500 cases, 2) lacks
some additional procedures, and 3) does not support SPSS syntax (command
language).
There are many reference books that you can buy if you
want for Excel and for SPSS, but you will not need them since I will
demonstrate each exercise in-class, and since both programs have built-in help.
You may also find working with other
students helpful in doing the computer assignments. However, the computer assignments that you hand in require that
you do your own computer work for the assignments: each person must sit at a computer and do every assignment. Similarly, a tutor may help you but must not
do the assigned work for you. For the
spreadsheet assignments you are required to sit at a computer and to perform
all of the keystrokes required to create the spreadsheet; others in your group
may be watching and coaching you, but each group member must key in the
spreadsheet from scratch. If you do not
do this, then you will not develop as much your personal capability to use a
spreadsheet program, which is a course objective. Any student who turns in computer work as his/her own, when in
reality the computer work was done by someone else, is committing academic
dishonesty subject to disciplinary action under university rules.
Course
Listserv
I have subscribed all students
enrolled in the course who have an email address in the PSU Information System
to the course listserv. If you do not have an email address in the PSU
information system then I did not subscribe you and you will need to subscribe
yourself. To see if your email address was included, you can look at the files
in the folder for this course on my website and find the file with the name
EmailAddressList...".
You must subscribe to the course listserv within two
days after the first class meeting, if you are not already subscribed. I will use this listserv to send messages to
the class members. You can also send
messages to the class members‑-for example, to solicit help and to help
other students requesting help.
To subscribe to the listserv go to the information page
for this listserv, which you can link to via my web site, or you can just go
directly to:
"https://www.lists.pdx.edu/lists/listinfo/pa552"
Course
Grades
I will assign course grades as fairly as I can based on a
computerized total points score and calculated grade. I usually allow myself a maximum leeway of one increment (for
example, B to B+) from the calculated grade to take into account class
preparation, participation, and other special considerations.[2] The total points score is computed from
scores on the following criteria using these approximate percentage weights:
30% Computer and
other assignments, including meeting due dates
30% Midterm
examination
40% Final
examination
I do not give all graduate students "A's". A "B" is also a passing grade at
the graduate level. A "C" or
lower means I feel the work was below acceptable graduate student
standards. In practice, for this type
of course I typically assign about half of the grades in the A/A- range, half
in the B+/B/B- range, and occasionally assign a grade of C or lower.
The university policy on assigning incomplete
("I") grades restricts their use to special circumstances (see PSU
Bulletin). Missing assignments will
usually result in a lower grade or an "X" grade, not an
"I". If major assignments are
missing a very low grade may result. If
you enroll in this course but find you are not able to do all of the
assignments, I recommend that you drop the course. If you remain in the course and do not complete all of the work,
you need to write or email me to request an "I" grade.
I consider academic dishonesty a serious offense and will
penalize offenders to the full extent possible under university policies. Academic dishonesty includes cheating on
examinations, copying or stealing other people's work, turning in work done by
someone else as one's own, plagiarism, and other kinds of
misrepresentation. Turning in computer
assignments done by another person would be an example. If you know of any of these problems
occurring in this class, please let me know so that I can investigate. The vast majority of you would never do
this, and my commitment to you is if I should learn about such cheating I will
deal with it severely, regardless of who the student is and what excuses the
student offers.
Return
of Assignments, Examinations
Any assignments I have not returned
to you by the last class meeting you can pick up from me after finals
week. You will not get back copies of
examinations, but a key exam will be available for you to see immediately after
completing exams, and your scored exams will be available for you to examine in
my office.
My
Availability Outside of Class
I am available to consult with you about course matters
by email, phone, and in person outside of class hours. To see me in person, schedule a time with
me. The best way to schedule a time
with me is to email me. I can usually meet students on Tuesdays/Thursdays late
mornings, afternoons, and evenings after my classes. You can also suggest other
times.
Feel free to stop by my office if you are in the CUPA
Building; if I am in, I will see you then if I can. This combined by-appointment/flexible-office-hours approach
provides a more practical way to arrange consultation than limited specific
office hours, given the varied work schedules of students in our program.
Course
Outline[3]
1.
Introduction
Introduce Course, Course Overview
Government Uses of Statistics, Importance of Statistics
Types of Statistical Methods
Miller, pp. 1-6, 11-26
Triola, Ch. 1
2.
Measurement
Cases, UOA, Values, Variables
Levels of Measurement
Measurement Errors
Reliability, Validity
Types of Data
Survey Research
Miller, pp. 53-64, 186-190, 203-213
Research Methods KB, "Measurement",
"Levels of Measurement"
Statsoft EST, "Elementary
Concepts", "Measurement Scales"
Triola, Ch. 1
3.
Computer Use in Public Agencies
Historical Perspective
Current Use
Role of Course Exercises
Basic Spreadsheet Concepts
Triola, 1-5 "Introduction to Excel"
4.
Descriptive Statistics
Frequency Distributions
Measures of Central Tendency: Mean, Median, Mode
Measures of Spread:
Variance, Standard Deviation
Miller,
pp. 60-79, 186-187, Ch. 5
Triola, Ch. 2-3
Brian Stipak, "Government Expenditure Levels: Alternative Procedures for Computing
Measures"
Brian
Stipak, "Alternatives to Population-Based Crime Rates"
5.
Tables and Charts
Stem
and Leaf Diagram, Box Plots
Graphs
and Chartjunk
Effective
Table / Chart Presentation
Miller, Ch. 6-7
Innovative use of graphics in a performance
audit, web
Triola, Ch. 2-3
See Edward R. Tufte, The Visual Display of Quantitative
Information, for examples of statistical graphics.
Edward R. Tufte, The Cognitive Style of Powerpoint
6.
Probability
Probability Concepts
Normal Probability Distribution
Miller, pp. 99-100
Triola, Ch. 4-6
7.
Quality Control Charts
Run charts
Control charts: mean, standard deviation, proportion
Triola, Ch. 14
8.
Sampling Methods
Simple Random Sampling,
Systematic Sampling, Convenience Sampling
Probability
Sampling, Quota Sampling
Stratification,
Clustering
Sampling
Error
Simple Methods for SRS, Stratified,
and Systematic Sampling
Triola, pp. 26-31
9.
Sampling Distributions
Sampling Distribution of the Mean
Central Limit Theorem
Sampling Distribution of a
Proportion
Triola, Ch. 6
10.
Estimation
Point Estimates versus Interval Estimates
Desirable Properties of Estimators
Triola, Ch. 7
11.
Confidence Intervals
Confidence
Interval for a Mean, Normal Distribution
Confidence
Interval for a Proportion
t Distribution
Confidence Interval for a Mean, t
Distribution
Triola, Ch. 7
12.
Required Sample Size
RSS to estimate a proportion/percentage
RSS to estimate a mean
Triola, Ch. 7
13.
Hypothesis Testing, Basic Classical Approach
Logic of Classic Hypothesis Testing
Statistical Significance
Test of Mean, Normal Distribution
Test of Proportion, Normal Distribution
Test of Mean, t Distribution
Triola, Ch. 8
14.
Hypothesis Testing, Extensions and Further Considerations
P-values as an alternative to classic hypothesis testing
Two-Sample Tests:
Difference in Means, Normal Distribution
Difference in Means, t Distribution
Difference in Proportions, Normal
Distribution
Type I & II errors, Statistical Power
Relationship of Confidence Intervals and Hypothesis
Testing
Reconsideration of Classic Testing, Statistical
Significance
How Important is "Statistical Significance?"
Role of Estimation vs. Hypothesis Testing
Miller, pp. 40-52
Triola, Ch. 8-9
PA 551 Fall
2009
Approximate Class Schedule*
(Note: Announcements about assignments, exams, and other
course matters will be given in class and/or made through the course listserv.)
|
|
Date |
Assignment Due (write
in changes from class/listserv) |
Topics (approximate) |
|
1 |
9/29 |
|
Introduction Measurement |
|
2 |
10/6 |
Computer Assn 1 due |
Measurement Computer Use |
|
3 |
10/13 |
Computer Assn 2 due |
Descriptive
Statistics Probability |
|
4 |
10/20 |
Computer Assn 3 due |
Probability Quality Control
Charts |
|
5 |
10/27 |
|
Sampling Methods Sampling Distributions Estimation |
|
6 |
11/3 |
Computer Assn 4 due Midterm Exam |
Estimation Confidence Intervals |
|
7 |
11/10 |
|
Confidence Intervals Required Sample Size Hypothesis Testing |
|
8 |
11/17 |
|
Hypothesis Testing |
|
9 |
11/24 |
Computer Assn 5 due |
Hypothesis Testing |
|
10 |
12/1 |
|
Hypothesis Testing Further
Considerations |
|
11 |
12/8 |
Course Evaluations, Final
Examination |
|
|
|
|
||
*This class schedule is
approximate, and adjustments will occur during the term. Some topics above appear for more than one
date because a topic may take more than one class period, or to allow leeway
when the topic is covered.
[1]If you have a technical
background but have not covered the PA551/PA552 material, you may want to see
me to discuss possible replacement courses that may suit you better.