Reading Notes for Collapse (Ch. 14)


Sean Porter November 25, 2006


Diamond, J. (2005). Why Do Some Societies Make Disastrous Decisions. In Wendy Wolf, Stefan McGrath, and Jon Turney (Eds.), Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed. (pp. 419-440). New York, NY: The Penguin Group.


Summary


We find that there are five main reasons why societies make disastrous decisions. These are, in no particular order:

  1. A failure to anticipate a problem on the horizon. Such as the British introducing non-native species to Australia, a situation they had no prior experience with. Another example is the Anasazi, who had prior experience with the problems that they faced, but lacked the ability to transfer that knowledge to their ancestors through writing. Even with writing, societies can overlook the information that is actually relevant and not record it, as in the case of the Maya. In terms of more modern examples, the oil crisis in 1973 had a profound effect on the way we in this country used petroleum products, but that effect was short-lived. We soon forgot about it, and now use more oil than ever. Societies can also use false analogies, those that correlate two seemingly similar but truly drastically different situations, much like the Greenland Norse believing that the soil in Greenland would not be at risk when they cleared vegetation because similar trees grew in their homeland.

  2. Societies can altogether miss the problems that are currently facing them. Some problems cannot be seen with the naked eye, and must be specifically tested for. This is the case with nutrient deficient soils in places like Australia. There are also the problems of distant managers, who may not be anywhere near to see the damage that is taking place. The most common situation seems to be that the overall trend is disguised by erratic fluctuation. Global warming is one of the prime examples, as climatologists have only recently shown that within the large variations in global temperatures from year to year and season to season, there is an upward trend that likely can be ascribed to human activity.

  3. The most surprising and varied reason why societies make bad decisions is that of “rational behavior.” People acting for their own benefit, usually at the expense of other people, often cause the greatest damage. Subsidizing of economically non-viable operations like growing sugar in the U.S. is a good example. Generally the people who gain are a small group, while those it hurts are a very large group. This contributes to the lack of resistance to the subsidizing since one person won't gain much by fighting it, because they only lose a small amount individually. This also encompasses the tragedy of the commons. When the common resources are mismanaged due to individuals believing that all the resources in them will be harvested by someone, they ask why it should not be them, and can't find any logical reason. There also exist conflicts of interest between the needs of the elite and the common people, or nearly any two groups of people. Often the elite are able to insulate themselves from the effects of their mismanagement, thereby making it easier for them to continue cheating the rest of the society.

  4. Often societies are loathe to give up values that are detrimental to their survival and don't make sense in their current environment. Often people will prefer to die rather than give up any of their values, especially when it concerns religion.

  5. Societies will often disregard the knowledge of a problem because they don't like the source, or because there have been false alarms in the past. Often societies are in denial of their problems, even after they have been shown them clearly and unequivocally.



Relevance


Diamond shows that we can learn from past mistakes, of our society and others and use that information to guide us in deciding what values still make sense in light of our current situation.


“New” Words


nor·mal·cy (nôrml-s)

n.

Normality.


normalcy. (n.d.). The American Heritage® Dictionary of the English Language, Fourth Edition. Retrieved November 25, 2006, from Dictionary.com website: http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/normalcy


Questions


  1. Did Diamond ever consider the possibility that on Easter Island the islanders had curbed their habits before the last tree was felled, and some outside force like a tropical storm destroyed the remaining forest instead?

  2. Can we get society as a whole to recognize all the roadblocks to making the right decisions?