sustainability/multiple-models.html

Multiple Models for Sustainability

2006.02.12

1. Previous work with sustainability has used about four different underlying models.

Each underlying model leads to its own set of claims.

a. A sustainable system will read a steady state.

equilibrium system

output or harvest has to be limited to input or growth

 

b.Any system of production and consumption will naturally pulse.

system away from equilibrium

growth or accumulation of a resource will be used most efficiently by consumers

leads to pulsing

looks like predator-prey interactions

requires different plans for what to do during the declining resource periods

Odum and Odum, Prigogine

 

c. Sustainability needs to be considered across multiple time and space scales.

multiscale view

Panarchy

resiliency cycle at individual scales are linked

interplay between fast and slow processes are key to be resilient

Gunderson and Hollings

 

d. The situation of "sustainability" is an emergent property of a complex system.

the outcome of the overall system can't be determined by setting goals at the lower level

conditions that promote cooperativity are crucial

 

2. My claim is that the emergent/complex view of sustainability is the general case that "contains" the rest of the versions of sustainability.

I won't go into this argument here. Proceed as if it were true, what it would mean for how we study and attempt to understand the condition of sustainability.

a. We need to study multiple scales and how they interact.

Panarchy approach of both landscape ecology and fast/slow regulations

b. We need to understand two things much better: time and value

 

 

3. Time is a fundamental cultural construct.

Time relates to value through official, social and personal discount rates. I will deal with that after I deal with time and value separately.

a. Cultures have different views of time.

see notes from Jan 2 on Edward Hall

polychronic vs. monochronic

b. Does what we refer to as time run constantly just because we can make machines that measure even time increments?

c. understanding how to achieve sustainability will require addressing whether human time is

constant everywhere for everyone

pulsing (faster or slower)

heterogeneous (different rates at different places)

 

4. There are different ways to describe human values, but one definition resonates with sustainability.

There are multiple definitions of "value" that could pertain to sustainability. See value-2systems.html

a. Alexander's definition of value

The only way to get the requisite level of complexity necessary to regulate a complex system is through an unfolding process.

The value of a process, idea or thing in this context is how it fits into supporting the sustainable "unfolding" from one step to the next.

b. relate to other definition of value from facts--> metaphors --> values

 

 

 

5. Time and value are inextricably linked in the concept of sustainability.

a. Whereas economists might simplify the value of something as a function of time, even using a complicated non-linear function, it is more than a substitution type relationship.

discount rate

non-linear is not the same as discontinuous version of time that seems to be held as a matter of judgement and neurobiology by humans

there are short term phenomenon and long term - and these aren't equatable

There may be an ambiguity about this that is irreducible. If so, we need a new definition of time/value.

b. Even simple discount rate considerations can be shown to undermine cooperativitity.

Evolution of cooperativity

 

c. Complex processes relate time and value.

rates of reactions that go through phase transition

spatial and temporal variability

asthma attacks

wetland or humock structure in a hydrological field (pond <--> labyrinth <--> islands)

d. There are crucial instants in time that determine a single sub-system's future value.

bifurcations

relate to multiple trials and unfolding

 

 

e. We need new ways to conceptualize the flow of time.

metaphors for time that aren't based on a mechanical clock image

pulsing - a time unit is the time for some part of the process to take place

when the system is changing the most - time slows down

**example

history leading to the present and determining the future - history of complex systems

**example

unfolding of processes around centers (Alexander)

origami

**example