fox-tversky-2000.html

Fox, C. R., and Amos Tversky (2000). Ambiguity Aversion and Comparitive Ignorance. Choice, Values, and Frames. D. Kahneman, and Amos Tversky. Cambridge, UK, Cambridge University Press: 528 - 542.

measurable uncertainty or risk vs. unmeasureable uncertainty which cannont be represented by precise probabilities

entrepreneurs are paid to deal with uncertainty

from work of Ellsberg, "people prefer to bet on known rathter than unknown probabilities"

"Contrarty to abiguity aversion, they found that people prefer to bet on their vague beliefs in situtations where they feel especially competent or knowledgeable, although they prefer to bet on chance when they do not."

"We propose that people's confidence is underminded when they contrast their limited knowledge about an event with their superior knowledge about another event, or when they compare themselves with more knowledgeable individuals. Moreover, we argue that this contrast between states of knowledge is the predominant source of ambiguity aversion."

<!-- this may relate to why professionals will make decisions based on intutition rather than scientific evidence - see the UKL NRC report as an example of this type of error -->