objects/uncertainty-worldviews-demotrans.html

Pluralistic Uncertainty Management

Differs from traditional management in that it seeks multiple perspectives

perspective = coherent and consistent description of the world that guide them to act

compare the behavior of three socio-cultural perspectives

individualist (market optimist)

egalitarian (environmental worry wart)

hierarchist (controllist)

(see Van Asselt & Rotmans 1996)

address a controvesy or dilemma

• controversy = different opinions
• dilemma = forced to make a decision between two options that are both difficult or undesirable

Problem definition

"Can we provide a future world population with enough food, clean water and energy to guarantee a healthy life, while safeguarding our natural resource base?"

Example - looking at water availability and demand

consider:

• water scarcity models
• water quality models
• water supply-cost curves
• water demand
• diffusion of new technology
• partial consumption use
• sensitivity to climate change

examine alternative interpretations

• population growth desired
• limits to population
• other values and predictions

look at the different perspective descriptions of the problem and management style

hierachist - egalitarian - indivudalist

generate predictions from the model for each type