Sources of Uncertainty

sources of variability

inherent randomness

non-linear or chaotic nature of the process

value diversity

differences in people's mental maps, worldviews and norm

human behavior

non-rational behavior, deviations from normal, or discrepancies between what they say and what they actually do

social

non-linear or chaotic nature of social systems linked to the process

technological surprises

breakthroughs or qualitatively different technologies

limited knowledge

inexactness

lack of ability to measure or measurement error

lack of data

lacking data that could have been collected but wasn't

practical immeasurability

technically possible to measure but too expensive or other similar reason

conflicting evidence

directly contradictory datasets or interpretation

reducible ignorance

we don't know what we don't know

indeterminancy

we understand enough of the laws governing the processes to know that they lead to unpredictable outcomes

irreducible ignorance

we cannot know