Probabilistic estimate of damage based on
probability an event
probablilty of exposure
probabiliity of exposure leading to damage
example: truck carrying toxic chemicals crashes
broad range of possible outcomes makes it impossible to predict the future
Sources:
inherent variation or unpredictability of complex systems
inadequate methods or limts to perception and measurement
human decisions
example: fishery harvest - don't know how many fish or exactly how fast they're growing or the real efficiency of the fishing methods
Indeterminacy
is a type of uncertainty that we may cause by employing bigger projects and overwhelming energy/ power density
Risk can be calculated
mitigate with insurance or choosing to employ multiple methods to solve a problem (portfolio)
Uncertainty
develop scenarios - define the possible outcomes
scientific adaptive management - one tenet is to take management actions that reduce the uncertainty for future management actions
Dealing with uncertainty - identify it, don't underestimate, need different tools, ways to communicate