objects-proto/precautionary-2views.html

Two views of the "Precautionary Principle"

1. The classical concept from ecology is about uncertainty.

• it's better to be safe than sorry
• when in doubt, error on the side of caution
• don't do anything unless you know it's safe

2. It seems that a new verions is emerging from economics treats this as risk managment

• determining a safety standard
• Type I vs. Type II errors

My claim at this time (2006.05.29) is that uncertainty is not the same as calculated risk or even risk ranges.

Uncertainty relates to both

the current state of knowledge or experience with a problem-solution pair and,

the assumption of bounded rationality, i.e. that you can't learn enough fast enough (if ever)

Decisions under uncertainty are best approach with methods that are very different from risk assessment and management. In particular, decisions under uncertainty may relate to the structure of the information about th problem-solution pair rather than any specific data.

see Gigerenzer and Selten