November 24, 2008
How would you examine the impact of renewable energy sources?
These may be better than others, but what's their impact?
What are potential unintended consequences? Ask the ecological question, "what then?".
Tenner, Edward 1996. Why things bite back: Technology and the revenge of unintended consequences. Vintage Books, New York.
Jason Peters - Dec 2008, Orion magazine.
"I am astonished by the number of academics convinced that the infusion of a few technological electrolytes will cure the pounding hangover sure to punish us for partying so recklessly in the hospitality tents sponsored by Cheap Readily Avaliable Oil."
efficiency
negawatt
hydrogen-solar path
decentralization/distributed
society will have to make major changes in all aspects
one way to look at this is with future scenarios and backcasting
- what will it take to get there
- what do we have to do now
four scenarios from the MEA (Raskin ****, Speth 2008 pg 43)
scenario key features Global orchestration
"policy reform"policy reforms
reshape economies and governance
growing economies
coordinated management of resources
Order from Strength
"fortress"regional and fragmented world
security and protection
nations protect their own interests
treaties are weak
ecosystem services are very vulnerable
Adapting mosaic
"new sustainability"regional and watershed scale
local ecosystem management strategies
heavy reliance on ecosystem services
managed for resilience
great diversity in approaches
<!-- scientific adaptive management -->
TechnoGarden
"market"globally connected world
relying on technology and highly managed (i.e.. controlled) ecosystemss/farms
ecological engineering approaches
environmental entrepreneurship to help technologies and property rights co-evolve
Ehrenfeld - "Decreasing unsustainability will not create sustainability"
Ehrenfeld, J. R. (2008). Sustainability by design: A subversive strategy for transforming our consumer culture. New Haven, CT, Yale University Press.
Sustainability as an emergent behavior
need to set up conditions - not precursors
The very difficult path to sustainability
thresholds, resilience, restoration first,
in the rugged landscape, you need to be near sustainability to get there
will need a large cadre of thoughtful, reflective scientific practioners and opportunities to work with communities who understand the risks and uncertainties
fundamentally different type of real governance than we have now
- espoused democracy but with no authority over the economy
- neither the markets or democratic process are allowed time to work
- this is a minor crisis (compared to large natural disasters or pandemic)
- one "solution" imposed across all scales
Major Concepts from Chapter 17
unavoidable waste and avoidable waste (fig 18-3)
negawatt - Lovins
electical efficiencies
efficiency vs. number of steps (fig 18-6)
real cost of gasoline (sidebar on pg 384)
how a hybrid car works - and why the transmission is so expensive
H2 cells are batteries not a source of energy
solar power (passive and active)
net energy efficiency of house heating (fig 18-15)
?what about home cooling?
different forms of capturing solar power
passive, PV, thermal,
hydropower
wind power
biomass fuels - solid, biodiesel, ethanol
hydrogen economy (all the pieces that need to be in place)
decentralization/distributed