Lecture 16: Adaptive Management and Uncertainty
Thur, March 4, 2010
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1. assignment 2 |
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2. overview of management challenge |
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3. scientific method |
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4. uncertainty |
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5. adaptive management |
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1. Assignment 2
comments
The Transition Towns organization requires and "energy descent plan".
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2. Overview and examples
Scientific method
still leaves irreducible uncertainties
about ecosystem management decisions
that can only be addressed through management actions.
Examples:
- controlling the P load of a lake to avoid algal blooms - thresholds
- choosing short term methods to minimize Malaria after rains - link
- deciding to take a particular action relating to climate change
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3. Scientific method
traditional scientific method - link
strong at identifying new problems and collecting evidence
type of technology (W. Brian Arthur 2009)
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4. Uncertainties, Indeterminancies and Risks
link
The Rumsfeldian version
- know that we know - rationality
- know that we don't know - bounded rationality
- know that we can't know - irreducible uncertainty or indeterminancy
- don't know that we know -
- don't know that we don't know -
but also Rumsfeldian action is the creation of indeterminancy through the use of overwhelming forces (as described Adams) (i.e. Shock and Awe)
other descriptions of uncertainties
van asselt and rotmans 2002
- problems need to be addressed pluralistically
- description of the components of uncertainty
- scenarios (based on world views) can be constructed and compared
- "risk" of choosing the wrong description of the world
- your view =/= what really happens
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5. Adaptive Management
link
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