http://web.pdx.edu/~rueterj/courses/esr102-201001/lecture10.html

Lecture 10: Multiple perspectives and
scenarios for global change

Review and questions on the exam at the end

March 11, 2010

  1. Problem with predicting the future is that it is uncertain
  2. description of uncertainty
  3. precautionary principle
  4. game against nature
  5. using pluralistic management (and multiple perspectives) to examine uncertainty
  6. HEI framework and examples:
    1. demographic transition
    2. water and agriculture
    3. atmospheric carbon and temperature
    4. mismatches
  7. MEA scenarios and projections
  8. summary
  9. results from Quiz 2 and preparation for the exam
  10. course evaluation

 

 

1. The future is uncertain

 

 

2. Uncertainty has different components and can be described

risk, uncertainty and indeterminancy

van-asselt-rotmans-2002 notes part A

 

 

3. Precautionary principle

 

 

4. Game theory

games against nature

 

 

5. Pluralistic Management

Multiple perspectives, plurality, and scenarios

van-asselt-rotmans-2002 notes part B

heirarchist, egalitarian, individualist

 

 

6. Examples:

water resources - part B continued

demographic transition

review - systems view of the DT

van-asselt-rotmans-1996

atmospheric carbon and temperature

van-asselt-rotmans-2002 Part C

Mismatches (part C and back to part B)

 

 

7. MEA scenarios

powerpoint - but see the reading

  • slide 14 - 17: functions
  • slides 31 - 36: loss of services
  • slide 43
  • slides 52-56: freswater and other degraded systems
  • slides 68 - 82: scenarios
    • brown = Order from Strength
    • green = adapting mosaic
    • blue = technogarden
    • red = global orchestration

 

 

8. Summary

 

 

9. quiz 2 results and comments

 

 

10. course evaluation

dependence on the website

link to the lab section