Lecture 10: Multiple perspectives and
scenarios for global change
Review and questions on the exam at the end
March 11, 2010
- Problem with predicting the future is that it is uncertain
- description of uncertainty
- precautionary principle
- game against nature
- using pluralistic management (and multiple perspectives) to examine uncertainty
- HEI framework and examples:
- demographic transition
- water and agriculture
- atmospheric carbon and temperature
- mismatches
- MEA scenarios and projections
- summary
- results from Quiz 2 and preparation for the exam
- course evaluation
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1. The future is uncertain
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2. Uncertainty has different components and can be described
risk, uncertainty and indeterminancy
van-asselt-rotmans-2002 notes part A
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games against nature
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5. Pluralistic Management
Multiple perspectives, plurality, and scenarios
van-asselt-rotmans-2002 notes part B
heirarchist, egalitarian, individualist
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6.
Examples:
water resources - part B continued
demographic transition
review - systems view of the DT
van-asselt-rotmans-1996
atmospheric carbon and temperature
van-asselt-rotmans-2002 Part C
Mismatches (part C and back to part B)
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7. MEA scenarios
powerpoint - but see the reading
- slide 14 - 17: functions
- slides 31 - 36: loss of services
- slide 43
- slides 52-56: freswater and other degraded systems
- slides 68 - 82: scenarios
- brown = Order from Strength
- green = adapting mosaic
- blue = technogarden
- red = global orchestration
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8. Summary
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9. quiz 2 results and comments
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10. course evaluation
dependence on the website
link to the lab section
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