Pick one of the Millenium Ecosystem Assessment scenarios as an expression of a world view. Descibe how this is threatened if the future really demands another scenario. What is the problem between a mismatch between a preferred worldview and a real future?
For example if you choose the Adapting Mosaic scenario, what factors would undermine the success of that scenario.
I was looking for the assumptions from one of the other scenarios that would undermine that scenario specifically, not any factor.
The only answer that I saw that came close was that Adapting Mosaic looks good but might collapse if the global economy needed Global Orchestration level of control.
The point with these scenarios is whether one is right or wrong, but that we can assess risks on very complex situations. If we identify several general scenarios, each one might represent a wide range of future possibilities that might happen if we follow a certain set of values and management approaches. Then if we compare the outccomes under un-expected parameters, we can determine the possible problems or weakness of each world view that we used to generate the scenario. We could use this analysis to stay away from bad combinations of world-views and potential futures. For example, if you really believe that the world would be much better off if everyone got along with minimum rules but you realize that what the country needs is a strict set of rules, you'd have to be an ideolog to just go along with the same management scheme.
techno-garden could be a big risk by using a small set of solutions across a big scale
techno-garden might lower biodiversity of food crops
the success of any of the scenarios, in particular adapting mosaic or techno-garden, migh cause stress with neighboring regions and require walls, or if the population growth exceeds the capacity in a successful scenario
techno-garden may actually need global orchestration to be able to implement that level of technology
there are unforseen or unexpected outcomes for each of these scenarios
techno-garden requires a rapid pace of innovation