CHINA: Present and Future


1. Fundamentals of Understanding China


•                     Geography: Many Chinas

•                     Politics: the party-state system; democratic centralism and factionalism; class struggle; anti-imperialist nationalism; integration.

•                     Economy: socialism and its dismantlement

•                     International affairs: from self-reliance to interdependence

•                     Society: cultural contrasts; population; environment; collectivism and self-enrichment; corruption; human rights

•                     The necessity of reform: origins of "market socialism"


2. Problems of Analyzing China

•                     Western political and other biases; the love-hate relationship with China.

•                     "Democracy," "human rights," pluralism, and other differences.

•                     The role of the military.

•                     Assumptions about the center's power, stability, legitimacy, and longevity.

•                      Measuring China (men under arms, GDP, trade, Greater China, etc.

•                     Which China?


3. Immediate Issues


•                     Chinese nationalism: Has Han/Northern/inward-looking nationalism run its course, to be replaced by Southern/mercantilist (and other) regionalisms?

•                     Chinese power: Is China entering a new stage of nativism and militarism (national assertiveness)?

•                     Chinese politics after Deng: 5 scenarios

•                     Sectoral Evaluation of China's Rise

•                     agriculture: decollectivization

•                     the military: conversion

•                     industry: non-state ("private") enterprises

•                     trade: export-led growth; regionalization

•                     foreign investment trends


Sectoral Evaluation: A Second Look

·          agriculture: farmer unrest

·          the military: how much for defense? PLA intentions?

·          industry: the state-run enterprises

·          the environmental costs

·          the economy: out of control? inflation and regionalism