From: Subject: Performing a Benefit-Cost Analysis Date: Tue, 18 Mar 2003 16:55:22 -0800 MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: multipart/related; boundary="----=_NextPart_000_0087_01C2ED6F.2A7BBBA0"; type="text/html" X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft MimeOLE V6.00.2600.0000 This is a multi-part message in MIME format. ------=_NextPart_000_0087_01C2ED6F.2A7BBBA0 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Content-Location: file://C:\Temp\BenefitCostAnalysisCaltrans.htm Performing a Benefit-Cost Analysis Original url for document:=20 http://www.ce.umn.edu/~levinson/ce8094/evaluation.html

Performing a Benefit-Cost Analysis

by David Levinson

The procedures developed in this study are intended to help Caltrans = decide=20 whether it should deploy particular elements of its intelligent = transportation=20 infrastructure. The benefit cost analysis method is the same for ITS as = for any=20 other project or facility, even if the sources of data differ (and are = more=20 uncertain). However, even with the well developed Benefit Cost method a = number=20 of issues are must be resolved, including the determination of relevant = cash=20 flows, choosing the appropriate discount rate, the data assumptions, and = selecting the evaluation criteria, which are dealt with in turn. This = section=20 summarizes standard Benefit-Cost analysis procedures and applies them = with a=20 thorough example.

 

IDENTIFY benefits and costs

The identification of the costs, and more particularly the benefits, = is the=20 chief component of the "art" of Benefit-Cost Analysis. This component of = the=20 analysis is different for every project. Furthermore, care should be = taken to=20 avoid double-counting, especially counting cost savings in both the cost = and the=20 benefit columns. However, a number of benefits and costs should be = included at a=20 minimum. In transportation these costs should be separated for users,=20 transportation agencies, and the public at large.

User benefits from transportation are best derived from the sum of = consumer=92s=20 surplus for all consumers, where the consumer=92s surplus for an = individual is the=20 difference between what she would pay and what she actually must pay in = order to=20 travel. This is measured for both time and money costs. A key element of = this=20 analysis is the change in the number of consumers as money or time = prices drop=20 (for instance from P0 to P1 as illustrated in = Figure 1),=20 that is the lower the cost of travel, the more trips which will be made = (the=20 number of trips increases from Q0 to Q1). The = magnitude of=20 the number of additional trips depends on the sensitivity or elasticity = of=20 demand to changes in price and the actual shift in the price. A minor = change,=20 which saves mere seconds on a 30 minute trips is likely to induce few = new trips,=20 while a new highway which saves 10 minutes will induce many more.

The change in benefits for existing users is given by the rectangle = defined=20 by P0P1EA (the total price change (P0 - = P1) multiplied the number of old users (Q0) = receiving the=20 price change)

The benefits for new users is given by the triangle A E B (the number = of new=20 users (Q1 - Q0) multiplied by the difference = between what=20 the average new user would pay and what that new user has to pay at the = new=20 price (0.5 * (P0 - P1))).

 

Figure 1 Change in Consumer=92s Surplus From A New Project

 

 

One element of the change in consumer=92s surplus is movement along = the demand=20 curve, the second element is a shift of the demand curve. An improved = quality of=20 a trip will lead individuals to pay more (in money or time) for that = trip. This=20 quality shift can be achieved through real savings in the quality of = trip (it is=20 faster for instance) or in certainty about the trip (I am sure it will = take 20=20 minutes, rather than have some probability that it will take 40 = minutes).

Figure 2 illustrates a change in the quality of the trip which = results in no=20 change in money price users pay. Again, there are two groups for which = benefits=20 must be measured, the old users and the new users. Here the demand curve = shifts=20 from DB to DA.

The change in benefits to old users is defined by the area ZXVY. This = benefit=20 comes because old users would be willing to pay more money to receive a = higher=20 quality of service (I would pay more dollars to travel at Level of = Service A=20 (spend 25 minutes on the road) than at Level of Service B (spend 30 = minutes on=20 the road), all else equal). In practice this is extremely hard to = measure=20 because it requires knowledge of the shape of the demand curves at all = price=20 levels, while generally the demand curve is really only understood in = the area=20 around the actual price (P0).

The change in benefits to new uers is defined by the triangle = VYW.

 

Figure 2 Change in Consumers=92 Surplus Due to A Shift in the Demand=20 Curve

 

If the price level increases, the benefit increase will be smaller. = If price=20 increases to P1, then the net benefit will be zero and there = will be=20 no new users. The difference between P1 and P0 is = the=20 value of the additional quality of service.

 

Agency=92s benefits come from profits. But since most agencies are = non-profit,=20 they receive no direct profits. Agency construction, operating, = maintenance, or=20 demolition costs may be reduced (or increased) by a new project, these = cost=20 savings (or increases) can either be considered in the cost column, or = the=20 benefit column, BUT NOT BOTH.

Society is impacted by transportation project by an increase or = reduction of=20 negative and positive externalities. Negative externalities, or social = costs,=20 include air and noise pollution and accidents. Accidents can be = considered=20 either a social cost or a private cost, or divided into two parts, but = cannot be=20 considered in total in both columns.

Under the presence of positive network becomes more valuable the more = users=20 (destinations) that it has. An example is the road network, in = isolation, a road=20 between two users (a, b) has some value (V) (say 2: ab, ba). but add a = third=20 destination to the network (c), the value increases to six: (ab, ba, ac, = ca, bc,=20 cb), add a fourth destination (d) and now 12 different connections can = be made.=20 The equation more precisely is:

 

where: N is the number of users

 

If there are network externalities, then consumers=92 surplus for = each=20 different demand level should be computed. Of course this is easier said = than=20 done. Generally, positive network externalities are ignored in Benefit = Cost=20 Analysis.

 

Choose the appropriate discount rate

Both the costs and benefits flowing from an investment are spread = over time.=20 While some costs are one-time and borne up front, other benefits or = operating=20 costs may be paid at some point in the future, and still others received = as a=20 stream of payments collected over a long period of time. Because of = inflation,=20 risk, and uncertainty, a dollar received now is worth more than a dollar = received at some time in the future. Similarly, a dollar spent today is = more=20 onerous than a dollar spent tomorrow. This reflects the concept of time=20 preference which we observe when people pay bills later rather than = sooner. The=20 existence of real interest rates reflects this time preference. The = appropriate=20 discount rate depends on what other opportunities are available for the = capital.=20 If simply putting the money in a bank earned 10%, then at a minimum, no=20 investment earning less than 10% would be worthwhile. In general, = projects are=20 undertaken with those with the highest rate of return first, and then so = on=20 until the cost of raising capital exceeds the benefit from using that = capital.=20 No project should be undertaken on cost-benefit grounds if another = feasible=20 project is sitting there with a higher rate of return.

Three alternative bases for the setting the government=92s test = discount rate=20 have been proposed:

Typical estimates of social time preference rates are around 2 to 4% = while=20 estimates of the social opportunity costs are around 7 to 10%.

Generally, for Benefit-Cost studies an acceptable rate of return (the = government=92s test rate) will be already have been established. An = alternative is=20 to compute the analysis over a range of interest rates, to see to what = extent=20 the analysis is sensitive to variations in this factor. In the absence = of=20 knowing what this rate is, we can compute the rate of return (internal = rate of=20 return) for which the project breaks even, where the net present value = is zero.=20 Projects with high internal rates of return are preferred to those with = low=20 rates.

 

Determine a present value

Simple Discounting

The basic math underlying the idea of determining a present value is=20 explained using a simple compound interest rate problem as the starting = point.=20 Suppose the sum of $100 is invested at 7 per cent for 2 years. At the = end of the=20 first year the initial $100 will have earned $7 interest and the = augmented sum=20 ($107) will earn a further 7 per cent (or $7.49) in the second year. = Thus at the=20 end of 2 years the $100 invested now will be worth $114.49.

The discounting problem is simply the converse of this compound = interest=20 problem. Thus, $114.49 receivable in 2 years time, and discounted by 7 = per cent,=20 has a present value of $100.

Present values can be calculated by the following equation:

=20 (1)

where: F =3D future money sum

P =3D present value

i =3D discount rate per time period (i.e. years) in decimal form = (e.g.=20 0.07)

n =3D number of time periods before the sum is received (or cost = paid, e.g. 2=20 years)

Illustrating our example with equations we have:

Discounting Streams of Money

The present value, in year 0, of a stream of equal annual payments of = $A=20 starting year 1, is given by the reciprocal of the equivalent annual = cost. That=20 is, by:

=20 (2)

where: A =3D Annual Payment

For example: 12 annual payments of $500, starting in year 1, have a = present=20 value at the middle of year 0 when discounted at 7% of: $3971

More Complex Calculations

The present value, in year 0, of m annual payments of $A, starting in = year n=20 + 1, can be calculated by combining discount factors for a payment in = year n and=20 the factor for the present value of m annual payments.

For example: 12 annual mid-year payments of $250 in years 5 to 16 = have a=20 present value in year 4 of $1986 when discounted at 7%. Therefore = in year=20 0, 4 years earlier, they have a present value of $1515.

 

Choose an appropriate evaluation criterion

Three equivalent conditions can tell us if a project is = worthwhile

  1. The discounted present value of the benefits exceeds the = discounted=20 present value of the costs=20
  2. The present value of the net benefit must be positive.=20
  3. The ratio of the present value of the benefits to the = present=20 value of the costs must be greater than one.

However, that is not the entire story. More than one project may have = a=20 positive net benefit. From the set of mutually exclusive projects, the = one=20 selected should have the highest net present value. We might note that = if there=20 are insufficient funds to carry out all mutually exclusive projects with = a=20 positive net present value, then the discount used in computing present = values=20 does not reflect the true cost of capital, rather it is too low.

There are problems with using the internal rate of return or the = benefit/cost=20 ratio methods for project selection, though they provide useful = information. The=20 ratio of benefits to costs depends on how particular items (for = instance, cost=20 savings) are ascibed to either the benefit or cost column. While this = does not=20 affect net present value, it will change the ratio of benefits to costs = (though=20 it cannot move a project from a ratio of greater than one to less than=20 one).

ApplICATION: A Sample Problem

This problem, borrowed from Watkins (1996), illustrates how a Benefit = Cost=20 Analysis might be applied to a project. Consider a highway improvement = such as=20 the extension of Highway 101 into San Jose. The improvement of the = highway would=20 lead to more capacity which saves travel time and increases safety. But = there=20 will almost certainly be more total traffic than was carried by the old = highway.=20 This example excludes external costs and benefits, though their addition = is a=20 straight-forward extension.

Data

The following is a highly abbreviated analysis using hypothetical = data, given=20 in Table 1. The data for the "No Extension" can be collected from = off-the-shelf=20 sources, however the "101 Extension" column=92s data requires the use of = forecasting and modeling.

Table 1: Data
   

No Extension

101 Extension

Rush Hour

      

Passenger Trips

(per hour)

18,000

24,000

Trip Time

(minutes)

50

30

Value of Time

($/minute)

$0.10

$0.10

Nonrush Hour

      

Passenger Trips

(per hour)

9,000

10,000

Trip Time

(minutes)

35

25

Value of Time

($/minute)

$0.08

$0.08

Traffic Fatalities

(per year)

12

6

note: the operating cost for a vehicle is unaffected by the project = and is=20 $4.

Benefits

Time Savings

The data indicate that the time cost of a rush hour trip is $5 = without the=20 project and $3 with it. The time cost of a nonrush trip is $2.80 without = the=20 project and $2 with it. For the rush-hour trip the project saves $2 and = for the=20 nonrush-hour trip it saves $0.80.

There is an increase in consumer surplus both for the trips which = would have=20 been taken without the project and for the trips which are stimulated by = the=20 project (so-called "induced demand"), as illustrated above in Figure 1. = Our=20 analysis is divided into Old and New Trips, the benefits are given in = Table=20 2.

Table 2: Hourly Benefits

TYPE

Trips Which Would Be Taken Anyway

Trips Generated By the Project

Total

Rush Hour

$6,000.00

$1,000.00

$7,000.00

Nonrush Hour

$400.00

$22.22

$422.22

Note: Old Trips: For trips which would have been taken anyway = the=20 benefit of the project equals the value of the time saved multiplied by = the=20 number of trips. New Trips: The project lowers the cost of a trip = and=20 public responds by increasing the number of trips taken. The benefit to = new=20 trips is equal to one half of the value of the time saved multiplied by = the=20 increase in the number of trips.

To convert the benefits to an annual basis one multiplies the hourly = benefits=20 of each type of trip times the number of hours per year for that type of = trip.=20 There are 260 week days per year and at six rush hours per weekday there = are=20 1560 rush hours per year. This leaves 7200 nonrush hours per year. With = these=20 figures the annual benefits are given by Table 3:

Table 3: Annual Benefits

TYPE

Trips Which Would Be Taken Anyway

Trips Generated By the Project

Total

Rush Hour

$9,360,000

$1,560,000

$10,020,000

Nonrush Hour

$2,880,000

$160,000

$3,040,000

Total

$12,240,000

$1,720,000

$13,960,000

 

Safety

The safety benefits of the project are the product of the number of = lives=20 saved multiplied by the value of life. In a more complete analysis, we = would=20 need to include safety benefits from non-fatal accidents.

The value of life may be computed by examining how individuals reveal = their=20 preferences for known risks. For instance, some occupations are riskier = than=20 others. Suppose people accept an increase in the risk of death of 0.1% = per year=20 in return for $400 higher income per year. Then we can assume that a = project=20 that reduces the risk of death in a year by 0.1% gives a benefit to each = person=20 affected by it of $400 per year. The implicit valuation of a life in = this case=20 is $400,000. Thus, the benefit of the reduced risk project is the = expected=20 number of lives saved times the implicit value of a life. For the = highway=20 project this is 6 * $400,000 =3D $2,400,000 annually.

It should be noted that there is a wide range for the observed "Value = of=20 Life" from different studies, typical values are between $2 and $5=20 Million.

Total Benefits

The annual benefits of the project are given in Table 4

Table 4: Total Annual Benefits

Type of Benefit

Value of Benefits Per Year

Time Saving

$13,960,000.00

Reduced Risk

$2,400,000.00

Total

 

We assume that this level of benefits continues at a constant rate = over a=20 thirty-year lifetime of the project.

Costs

In our abbreviated example, the cost of the highway consists of = right-of-way,=20 construction, and maintenance. The cost of the right-of-way is the cost = of the=20 land and any structures upon it which must be purchased before the = construction=20 of the highway can begin. For purposes of this example the cost of = right-of-way=20 is taken to be $100 million and it must be paid before any construction = can=20 begin. In principle, part of the right-of- way cost for a highway can be = recovered at the end of the lifetime of the highway if it is not rebuilt = in=20 place (for instance, a new parallel route is constructed and the old = highway can=20 be sold for development). For this example it is assumed that all of the = right-of-way cost is recoverable at the end of the thirty-year lifetime = of the=20 project. The construction cost is $200 million spread evenly over a = four-year=20 period. Maintenance cost is $1 million per year once the highway is=20 completed.

The schedule of benefits and costs for the project is given in Table = 5

Table 5: Schedule Of Benefits And Costs

Time (year)

Benefits

($millions)

Right-of-way costs

($millions)

Construction costs

($millions)

Maintenance costs

($millions)

0

0

100

0

0

1-4

0

0

50

0

5-29

16.36

0

0

1

30

16.36

-100

0

1

 

Conversion to Present Value

The benefits and costs are in constant value dollars; i.e., there was = no=20 price increase included in the analysis. Therefore the discount rate = used must=20 be the real interest rate. If the interest rate on long term bonds is 8 = percent=20 and the rate of inflation is 6 percent then the real rate of interest is = 2=20 percent. Present value of the streams of benefits and costs discounted = at a 2=20 percent back to time zero are given in Table 6, and were developed by = applying=20 the following equations.

To compute the Present Value of Benefits in Year 5, we apply equation = (2)=20 from above.

To convert that Year 5 value to a year 1 value, we apply equation = (1)

 

The present value of right-of-way costs is computed as today=92s = right of way=20 cost ($100 M) minus the present value of the recovery of those costs in = year 30,=20 computed with equation (1):

 

The present value of the construction costs is computed as the stream = of $50M=20 outlays over four years is computed with equation (2):

 

Maintenance Costs are similar to benefits, in that they fall in the = same time=20 periods. They are computed the same way, as follows:

To compute the Present Value of Maintenance Costs in Year 5, we apply = equation (2) from above.

To convert that Year 5 value to a year 1 value, we apply equation = (1)

 

Table 6: Present Value of Benefits and Costs

Present Value ($millions)

Benefits

304.11

Costs

 

Right-of-Way

44.79

Construction

190.39

Maintenance

18.59

Costs SubTotal

Net Benefit (B-C)

50.35

Benefit/Cost Ratio

1.20

 

The positive net present value of $50.35 million and benefit/cost = ratio of=20 1.2 indicate that the project is worthwhile if the interest or discount = rate=20 (cost of capital) is 2 percent. When we have a discount rate of 3 = percent, the=20 benefit/cost ratio is slightly under 1.0. This means that the internal = rate of=20 return is just under 3 percent. When the cost of capital is 3 percent = the=20 project is not worthwhile.

It should be noted that the market value of the right-of-way may = understate=20 the opportunity cost of having the land devoted to the highway. The land = has a=20 value of $100 million because of its income after property taxes. The = economy is=20 paying more for its alternate use but some of the payment is diverted = for taxes.=20 The discounted presented value of the payments for the alternate use = might be=20 more like $150 million instead of $100 million. Another way of making = this point=20 is that one of the costs of the highway is that the local governments = lose the=20 property tax on the land used.

 

 

 

REFERENCES

 

Lesser , Jonathan and Zerbe Jr., Richard O. (1996) A Practitioner's = Guide To=20 Benefit-Cost Analysis

 

Watkins, Thayer (1996?) Cost Benefit Analysis San Jose State = University=20 Economics Department

Filipovitch, A.J. (1996) Benefit/Cost Analysis

Thuessen, G. J. and Fabrycky, W.J. (1984) Engineering Economy 6th = edition=20 Prentice Hall Englewood Cliffs NG

 

 

Glossary for Benefits and Costs of Intelligent Transportation Systems =

compiled by David Levinson

----------------------------------------------------------------------= ----------------------

Accessibility: The number of destinations which can be reached, = weighted=20 by the ease with which those destinations can be reached. Contrast with=20 mobility.

Accident: An unstable situation which includes at least one = harmful=20 event.

ADVANCE (Advanced Driver and Vehicle Advisory Navigation = Concept): A=20 cooperative effort to evaluate the performance of the first large scale = dynamic=20 route guidance system in the U.S.

Advanced Transportation Systems (ATS): A collection of = technologies=20 linking information systems with transportation to improve the = efficiency and=20 safety of transportation systems, see Intelligent Transportation = Systems

Affordability: Assessment of risk that is a function of cost, = priority,=20 and availability of fiscal and manpower resources.

APTS (Advanced Public Transportation Systems): One of six user = services=20 areas defined by the original ITS National Program Plan. (Recent updates = to the=20 plan have reorganized the user services into different = categories).

Asset: Anything owned or having monetary value. Usually refers to = equipment, a part or a component to be repaired.

ATIS (Advanced Traveler Information Systems): Information systems = designed to provide roadway users with accurate and timely information = on travel=20 conditions.

AVC (Automatic Vehicle Classification): Classifies trucks by = vehicle=20 length, number of axles, and axle spacing.

Average Annual Daily Traffic (AADT): The mean traffic on a road = segment=20 (in vehicles per day).

Average Costs: the total costs divided by the total output =

Average Fixed Costs: the total fixed costs divided by the total = output=20

Average Productivity: total quantity divided by the total = quantity of=20 input

Average Variable Costs: the total variable costs divided by the = total=20 output

AVI (Automatic Vehicle Identification): Identifies vehicles using = light,=20 microwave, or radio frequencies. Combines roadside receivers with = on-board=20 transponders to automatically identify vehicles. This includes license = plate=20 readers.

AVL (Automatic Vehicle Location): Calculates the location of a = truck or=20 trailer. There are several types of AVL Dead Reckoning AVL and Radio=20 determination AVL.

Capital: The existing stock of productive resources, such as = machines and=20 buildings, that have been produced.

Capital Market: the market in which savings are made available to = investors

Change in Demand: A shift in the entire demand curve so that at = any given=20 price, people will want to buy a different amount. A change in demand is = caused=20 by some change other than a change in the goods price.

Change in Quantity Demanded: Movement up or down a given demand = curve=20 caused by a change in the goods price with no shift in the curve = itself.

Change in Quantity Supplied: A price change causing movement = along the=20 supply curve but no shift in the position of the curve itself.

Change in Supply: A change in one of the cost determinants of = supply=20 causing a shift in the position of the supply curve.

Choice: The act of selecting among alternatives.

Coase's Theorem: the assertion that if property rights are = properly=20 defined, then people will be forced to pay for any negative = externalities they=20 impose on others, and market transactions will produced efficient = outcomes=20

Complement: a good for which demand decreases when the price of a = closely=20 related good increases

Consumer Sovereignty: the principle that holds that each = individual is=20 the best judge of what makes him better off

Consumer[=91s] Surplus: the difference between what a person = would be=20 willing to pay and what he actually has to pay to buy a certain amount = of a good=20

Consumers=92 Surplus: the difference between what a person would = be willing=20 to pay and what he actually has to pay to buy a certain amount of a good = for all=20 consumers, also the area under the demand curve and above the price = line.=20 Contrast with Producer=92s Surplus or Profit.

Consumption Function: the relationship between disposable income = and=20 consumption

Constant Returns To Scale: when all inputs are increased by a = certain=20 proportion, output increases by the same proportion

Correlation: relationship that results when a change in one = variable is=20 consistently associated with a change in another one

Cost Benefit Analysis (CBA): A technique for assessing the range = of costs=20 and benefits associated with a given option, usually to determine=20 feasibility.

Cost Effectiveness Analysis (CEA): A technique for assessing the = range of=20 costs to accomplish a specific goal, that is with benefits held = fixed.

Cross Subsidization: the practice of charging higher prices to = one group=20 of consumers in order to subsidize lower prices for another group =

CVO (Commercial Vehicle Operations): Includes all the operations=20 associated with moving goods and passengers via commercial vehicles over = the=20 North American highway system and the activities necessary to regulate = these=20 operations.

 

Debt: capital, such as bonds and bank loans, supplied to a firm = by=20 lenders; the firm promises to repay the amount borrowed with interest =

Decision Tree: a device for structured decision making that = spells out=20 the choices and possible consequences of alternative actions

Demand Curve: the relationship between quantity demanded of a = good and=20 the price, whether for an individual or for the market (all individuals) = as a=20 whole

Deregulation: the lifting of government regulations to allow the = market=20 to function more freely

Diminishing Marginal Utility: the principle that says that as an=20 individual consumes more and more of a good, each successive unit = increases her=20 utility, or enjoyment, less and less

Diminishing Relative Value: The principle that if all other = factors=20 remain constant, and individuals relative value of a good will decline = as more=20 of that good is obtained. Accordingly, the relative value of a good will = increase, other factors remaining constant, as an individual gives up = more of=20 that good.

Diminishing Returns To Scale: when all inputs are increased by a = certain=20 proportion, output increases by a similar proportion

Diminishing Returns: the principle that says as one input = increases, with=20 other inputs fixed, the resulting increase in output tends to be smaller = and=20 smaller

Discount Factor: The proportion of next year=92s nominal value = that you=20 would pay to receive it today. Discount Factor =3D 1 - Discount = Rate

Discount Rate: The premise behind any discount rate is the time = value of=20 money. One dollar today is not equal to one dollar a year from now. This = must be=20 considered in any evaluation of proposals with different time frames. = The=20 interest rate charged to banks when they wish to borrow from the central = bank

 

Economics: The study of choice and decision-making in a world = with=20 limited resources.

Economic Rents: payments made to a factor that are in excess of = what is=20 required to elicit the supply of that factor

Economies Of Scale: what exists when it is less expensive to = produce two=20 items of the same good together than it would be to produce each one = separately.=20 Related to, but different than, Increasing Returns to Scale

Economies Of Scope: what exists when it is less expensive to = produce two=20 products together than it would be to produce each one separately =

Efficiency: The allocation of goods to their uses of highest = relative=20 value.

Elasticity of Demand: The percentage change in the quantity = demanded=20 divided by the percentage change in price.

Equilibrium: The amount of output supplied equals the amount = demanded. At=20 equilibrium, the market has neither a tendency to rise nor fall but = clears at=20 the existing price.

ETC (Electronic Toll Collection): The process that allows a = driver to pay=20 tolls electronically.

ETTM (Electronic Toll and Traffic Management): The use of AVI to=20 electronically collect tolls, enabling vehicles to pay tolls without = stopping at=20 toll booths.

Excess Demand: the result of the quantity demanded at a given = price=20 exceeding the quantity supplied

Excess Supply: the result of the quantity supplied at a given = price=20 exceeding the quantity demanded

Exchange: The voluntary transfer of rights to use goods.

Exchange Value: The purchasing power of a unit of currency for = goods and=20 services in the marketplace.

Exclusion Principle: The owner of a private good may exclude = others from=20 use unless they pay.

Expected Return: the average return--a single number that = combines the=20 various possible returns per dollar invested with the chances that each = of these=20 returns will actually be paid

Externality: a situation in which an individual or firm takes an = action=20 but does not bear all the costs (negative externality) or receive all = the=20 benefits(positive externality). Thus costs or benefits that fall on = third=20 parties.

Factor Demand: the amount of an input demanded by a firm, given = the price=20 of the input and the quantity of output being produced; an input will be = demanded up to the point where the value of the input's marginal product = equals=20 the price of the input

Fixed, Or Overhead, Inputs: inputs that do not change depending = on the=20 quantity of output, at least over the short term

Fixed Costs: the costs resulting from fixed inputs, sometimes = called=20 overhead costs

Free Good: A good which is abundant and costless.

Free Rider: One who receives something without paying.

Good: Anything that anyone wants. All options or alternatives are = goods.=20 Goods can be tangible or intangible.

High Occupancy/Toll (HOT) Lanes: Lanes which are free to HOVs and = permit=20 SOVs to use them at a toll.

High Occupancy Vehicles (HOV): Vehicles with 2 or more (or 3 = more)=20 passengers, including the driver. Often special lanes are designated for = HOVs.

Horizontal Equity: the principle that says that those who are in=20 identical or similar circumstances should pay identical or similar = amounts in=20 taxes

Human Capital: the stock of accumulated skills and experience = that make=20 workers more productive

Imperfect Competition: any market structure in which there is = some=20 competition but firms face downward-sloping demand curves

Income Elasticity Of Demand: the percentage change in quantity = demanded=20 of a good as a result of a 1% change in income (the percentage change in = quantity demanded divided by the percentage change in income)

Incomplete Markets: situations in which no market may exist for = some good=20 or for some risk, or in which some individuals cannot borrow for some = purposes=20

Increasing Returns To Scale: when all inputs are increased by a = certain=20 proportion, output increases by a greater proportion

Inelastic Demand: A term used when the percentage change in = quantity=20 demanded is smaller than the percentage change in price.

Inferior Good: a good the consumption of which falls as income = rises=20

Infinite Elasticity Of Demand: the situation that exists when any = amount=20 will be demanded at a particular price, but nothing will be demanded if = the=20 price rises even a small amount

Infinite Elasticity of Supply: situation that exists when any = amount will=20 be supplied at a particular price, but nothing will be supplied if the = price=20 falls even a small amount

Inflation Rate: the percentage increase in the general level of = prices=20

Infrastructure: the physical facilities (e.g. roads, ports, = bridges), and=20 legal system that provide the necessary basis for a working economy =

Intangible Benefits: Recurring or Non-recurring Benefits = associated with=20 information resource management issues. Examples of intangible benefits = include:=20 the effects of an improved service to the public, greater timeliness, = improved=20 accuracy, better control and security, productivity savings.

Intangible Costs: Recurring or Non-recurring Benefits costs which = cannot=20 be easily quantified, such as the Learning Curve, which includes the = efficiency=20 loss while personnel are learning to use a new information system may be = an=20 intangible cost.

Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS): A collection of = technologies=20 linking information systems with transportation to improve the = efficiency and=20 safety of transportation systems

Interest: the return a saver receives in addition to the original = amount=20 she deposited, and the amount that a borrower must pay in addition to = the=20 original amount she deposited. The annual earnings that are sacrificed = when=20 wealth is invested in a given asset or business. The interest sacrificed = by=20 investing in a given business is often called the cost of = capital.

Internal Rate of Return: The interest rate that causes the = equivalent=20 receipts of a cash flow to equal the equivalent disbursements of that = cash flow.=20 Also, the interest rate that reduces the present worth amount of a = series of=20 receipts and disbursements to zero. See Rate of Return.

Investment Amount: The investment amount is the sum of all yearly = discounted costs. The investment amount is interpreted to include the = total=20 price the agency is proposing to pay over the life of the project or = system,=20 regardless of the type of purchase or the payment schedule.

Labor: Human inputs into production process, in contrast with=20 Capital.

Law of Demand: People purchase more of any particular good or = service as=20 its relative price falls; they purchase less as its relative price = rises.

Law of Supply: At higher relative prices, the quantity supplied = of a good=20 will increase; at lower relative prices, smaller quantities will be=20 supplied.

Learning Curve: the curve describing how costs of production = decline as=20 cumulative output increases over time

Level of Service: A Performance Measure describing how well a = particular=20 facility is serving the demands placed on it, for instance the speed of = traffic=20 (or its correlates flow and density).

Life Cycle Costs (LCC): the full cost over the entire life-cycle = of a=20 system from construction to destruction, generally categorized into = Acquisition=20 costs, Operating and Support costs, and Disposal costs

Long Run: the time period over which every input can be varied, = no inputs=20 are fixed.

Low Occupancy Vehicles (LOV): Vehicles carrying only the driver, = or the=20 driver and one passenger.

 

Marginal Cost: the additional cost corresponding to an additional = unit of=20 output produced, calculated by dividing the price of a marginal input by = the=20 marginal product of that input

Marginal Costs And Benefits: costs and benefits that result from = choosing=20 a little bit more of one thing and a little bit less of another

Marginal Product: the amount by which output increases with the = addition=20 of one unit of an input

Marginal Propensity To Consume: the amount by which consumption = increases=20 when disposable income increases by a dollar

Marginal Utility: the extra utility, or enjoyment, a person = receives from=20 the consumption of one additional unit of a good

Mobility: The ease of moving on the transportation network, = contrast with=20 accessibility.

Model: a set of assumptions and data used by engineers and = economists to=20 study an aspect of a system and make predictions about the future or = about the=20 consequences of various changes

Moral Hazard: principle that says that those who purchase = insurance have=20 a reduced incentive to avoid what they are insured against

Net Benefit.: The Net Benefit is calculated by summing all yearly = net=20 benefits for the life of the project or system

Non-Recurring Benefits: usually consist of cost reduction or = value=20 enhancement. Examples of cost reduction benefits would be improved = operations=20 resulting in reduced resource requirements. Examples of value = enhancement=20 benefits would be improved data utilization and operational=20 effectiveness.

Non-Recurring Costs: usually consist of the initial capital = investment=20 and other non-recurring costs. Examples of non-recurring costs would be = site and=20 facility preparation, new equipment, initial studies, software = conversion,=20 one-time training, personnel relocation, and contractual or other = support=20 services.

Normal Good: a good the consumption of which rises as income = rises

Opportunity Cost: the cost of a resource, measured by the value = of the=20 next-best, alternative use of that resource

Opportunity Sets: a summary of the choices available to = individuals, as=20 defined by budget constraints and time constraints

Outputs: the outcomes of a production process

Overhead Costs: the costs a firm must pay just to remain in = operation.=20 They do not depend on the scale of production

Pareto-efficient allocations: resource allocations, that cannot = make a=20 person better off without making someone else worse off

Partial Equilibrium Analysis: an analysis that focuses on only = one or a=20 few markets at a time

Payback Period: The payback period is the time required for the = net=20 benefit to pay back the investment amount. This indicates how soon the = state=20 will recover its investment amount. The payback period is calculated by=20 subtracting the yearly net benefits from the investment amount. = Fractions of the=20 final payback year should be presented in decimal form so that zero = investment=20 amount remains.

Performance Measure: Any indicator of how well a system is doing. = Some=20 performance measures are better than others, Consumer=92s Surplus, if it = can be=20 measured, is the best economic efficiency measure.

Present Discounted Value: how much an amount of money to be = received in=20 the future is worth right now

Pre-Trip Travel Information: A user service that will provide = travelers=20 with information before their departure and before the mode choice is=20 made.

Price: The amount of money, or other goods, that you have to give = up to=20 buy a good or service.

Price Elasticity Of Demand: the percentage change in quantity = demanded as=20 a result of a 1 percent change in price

Price Elasticity Of Supply: the percentage change in quantity = supplied as=20 a result of a 1 percent change in price

Principal-Agent Problem: any situation in which one party (the = principal)=20 needs to delegate actions to another party (the agent), and thus wishes = to=20 provide the agent with incentives to work hard and make decisions about = risk=20 that reflects the interests of the principal

Private Good: A good exclusively owned that cannot be = simultaneously used=20 by others.

Privatization: the process whereby functions that were formally = run by=20 the government are delegated instead to the private sector

Producer=92s Surplus: See Profit

Production Efficiency: the condition in which firms cannot = produce more=20 of some goods without producing less of other goods

Production Function: the relationship between the inputs used in=20 production and the level of output

Production Possibilities Curve: a curve that defines the = opportunity set=20 for a firm or an entire economy and gives the possible combinations of = goods=20 (outputs) that can be produced from a given level of inputs

Productive Resources: The inputs of labor, natural resources and = capital=20 used to generate new goods and services.

Productivity: (GDP per hour) how much an average worker produces = per=20 hour, calculated by dividing real GDP by hours worked in the economy =

Profits: The excess of income over all costs, including the = interest cost=20 of the wealth invested. Also called Producer=92s Surplus. Contrast with=20 Consumer[=92s] Surplus

Public Good: a good that costs little or nothing for an extra = individual=20 to enjoy, and that it costs a great deal to prevent an extra individual = from=20 enjoying, such as national defense

Pure Profit (Monopoly Rents): the profit earned by a monopolist = that=20 results from its reducing output and increasing the price from the level = at=20 which price equals marginal cost

Rational Expectations: the expectations of individuals that are = formed by=20 using all available information

Real Interest Rate: the actual increase in buying power of saved = money,=20 equal to the nominal interest rate minus the rate of inflation

Recurring Benefits: would be reductions in rentals and leases,=20 maintenance, data communications charges, data processing charges, = personnel=20 salaries and benefits, travel and training, contractual services, and = technical=20 support. Also included would be cost avoidance; that is, the avoidance = of future=20 costs by implementing the proposed system or project. Examples of cost = avoidance=20 would be information systems operational charges, equipment, and = software=20 development.

Recurring costs: will have to be paid throughout the life of the = system=20 or project. Recurring costs may include rentals and leases, maintenance, = license=20 fees, data communications charges, data processing charges, personnel = salaries=20 and benefits, travel and training, contractual services, and technical=20 support.

Return on Investment: Return on Investment is the net benefit = expressed=20 as a percentage of the investment amount. The Return on Investment is = calculated=20 by dividing the net benefit by the investment amount. The Return on = Investment=20 helps the evaluators compare budget issues of different sizes or scopes. = A small=20 investment in a small project or system can result in a greater return = on=20 investment than a large investment in a large project or system.

Revenue Curve: the relationship between a firm's total output and = its=20 revenue

Revenues: the amount a firm receives for selling its products, = equal to=20 the price received multiplied by the quantity sold

Risk: the loss associated with a decision, with a certain = probability,=20 contrast with Uncertainty

Risk Averse / Loving / Neutral: given equal expected returns and=20 different risks risk averse people will choose assets with lower risk, = risk=20 loving people will choose assets with higher risk, and risk-neutral = individuals=20 will not care about differences in risk

Risk Premium: the additional interest required by lenders as = compensation=20 for the risk that a borrower may default; more generally, the extra = return=20 required to compensate an investor

Shadow Price: the true social value of a resource

Short Run: The period during which some inputs are fixed and = cannot be=20 varied.

Single Occupancy Vehicles (SOV): Vehicles carrying only the=20 driver.

Signaling: conveying information, for example by earning a=20 college-degree, to persuade an employer that a prospective worker has = desirable=20 characteristics that will enhance his productivity

Slope: the amount by which the value along the vertical axis = increases as=20 a result of a change in a unit along the horizontal axis; the slope is=20 calculated by dividing the change in the vertical axis (the "rise") by = the=20 change in the horizontal axis (the "run")

Smart Card: Plastic cards with an embedded integrated circuit = chip=20 containing memory and microprocessor.

Social Costs: Private costs plus external costs.

Social Marginal Cost: the marginal cost of production, including = the=20 costs of any negative externality, such as air pollution, borne by = individuals=20 in the economy other than the producer

Static Expectations: the belief of individuals that today's = prices and=20 wages are likely to continue into the future

Substitute: a good for which demand increases when the price of a = closely=20 related good increases

Substitution Effect: the reduced consumption of a good whose = price has=20 increased that is due to the changed trade-off, the fact that one has to = give up=20 more of other goods to get one more unit of the high-priced good; the=20 substitution effect is associated with a change in the slope of the = budget=20 constraint

Sunk Cost: a cost that has been incurred and cannot be recovered =

Supply Curve: the relationship between the quantity supplied of a = good=20 and the price, whether for a single firm or the market (all firms) as a = whole=20

Supply-Constrained Equilibrium: the equilibrium that occurs when = prices=20 are stuck at a level below that at which aggregate demand equals = aggregate=20 supply; in a supply-constrained equilibrium, output is equal to = aggregate supply=20 but less than aggregate demand

Tangible Benefits: Benefits quantifiable in terms of direct = dollar=20 values; for example, the benefit of future equipment or personnel cost=20 avoidance.

Tangible Costs: Costs quantified in terms of direct dollar = values, such=20 as the cost of equipment or services.

Technological Change: An advance, usually scientific, that causes = an=20 increase in output to occur relative to the quantity of inputs.

Theorem: a logical proposition that follows from basic = definitions and=20 assumptions

Theory: a set of assumptions and the conclusions derived from = those=20 assumptions put forward as an explanation for some phenomena

Trade-Offs: the amount of one good (or one desirable objective) = that must=20 be given up to get more of another good (or to attain more of another = desirable=20 objective)

Transactions Costs: the extra costs (beyond the price of the = purchase) of=20 conducting a transaction, whether those costs are money, time, or = inconvenience=20

Transponder: An electronic tag carried by a motor vehicle that = has=20 electronically stored information that can be retrieved by a roadside=20 reader.

Trip: The period during which a vehicle is continuously traveling = from=20 its point of origin to its destination. The vehicle may stop for short = periods=20 during the trip without causing discontinuation of the trip if no change = occurs=20 in the loaded weight.

Trip Ticket: An electronic ticket stored on the transponder which = contains trip related information such as the carrier, vehicle, driver = and=20 transponder IDs, commodity code, weight measurements, date/time/location = and=20 results of last clearance event. The trip ticket is transmitted during = DSRC=20 between vehicle and roadside reader equipment.

Uncertainty: the unknown outcomes of a decision, cannot be = specifically=20 targeted except by gathering more information. Contrast with = risk.

Utility: the level of enjoyment an individual attains from = choosing a=20 certain combination of goods

Utility Possibilities Curve: a curve showing the maximum level of = utility=20 that one individual can attain, given the level of utility attained by = others=20

Value of Time: The dollar value of time, for instance $10/hour. = Value of=20 time depends on the use to which the time is put, what it substitutes = for, and=20 the quality of the time. Typically time in motion is valued less highly = than=20 time waiting.

Variable Costs: Costs of a production process that increase or = decrease=20 along with changes in level of production, as opposed to fixed = costs.

Variable Inputs: inputs that rise or fall with the quantity of = output=20

Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT): The number of vehicles on a road = segment=20 multiplied by the length of a segment, summed for all road segments = under=20 study.

Vertical Equity: the principle that says that people who are = better off=20 should pay more taxes

Willingness to Pay: The amount a consumer would pay for a good or = service, not the amount he actually pays, which is the Price. Measured = by the=20 height of the demand curve.

 

Yearly Total Benefit: Total of the benefits for each year over = the=20 proposed life of the system or project.

Yearly Total Cost: Total of the costs for each year over the = proposed=20 life of the system or project.

Yearly Discounted Benefit: Each yearly total benefit is = discounted using=20 the present value factor for that year (see Discount Rates).

Yearly Net Benefit: The yearly discounted cost is subtracted from = the=20 yearly discounted benefit for each year over the life of the system or=20 project.

Zero Elasticity: a demand (or supply) curve has zero elasticity = if the=20 quantity demanded (or supplied) does not change at all if price changes; = the=20 demand (supply) curve is vertical

 

 

 

References:

The FACS Journalist's Guide to Economic Terms

Joseph Stiglitz=92s On-line Glossary from Economics textbook

Ged Ryan Cost Benefit Analysis - Further Definitions

Virtual Schoolhouse Contract Repair Enhancement Program Course = Glossary

DOT Transportation Glossary

 

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