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Worldviews: Utopia vs. Dystopia

Utopia - your world views happen to match the future

predict the conditions of the future and how your world view will handle those

match up means success

example:

you are an egalitarian and think everyone should cooperate

turns out everyone is an egalitarian and your society functions very well

 

Dystopia - your world views don't match the future

predict the conditions of the future and how your world view will handle those

don't match leads to failure

example:

you are an egalitarian and think everyone should cooperate

turns out that there are unruly people and minor sociopaths throughout your society that really need rules to keep them in check

your society has trouble

 

Analysis

Game Theory - decision square

example:

  Turns out, no global warming Global warming hits hard
You - spend money to prepare for global warming You "wasted" your money You suffered only minor damage
You - spend the money on more highways You didn't waste your money and now you have cool highways Your life is wrecked and you need all the highways in NY are under water

 

 

Dependence on critical assumptions

example:

critical assumptions radar chart