a. simple model of sustainability and wealth
b. modify the model for
substitute the use use of natural resources for general economic growth
provide another path for human population to either be a productive part of the economy or not
at some level the potential growth of the economy is all used up or even overwhelmed by the cost to take care of the population
more sick people decrease the growth rate and increase the social costs
History - why did people settle along rivers
Culture - how do people deal with environmental degradation and disease
Industry - effects of local industry on water and land (ruts, ponds, erosion)
Climate - models can be used to predict where malaria will be most prevalent
Thomson et al. 2006. Malaria early warnings based on seasonal climate forcasts from mulit-model ensembles. Nature 4392: 576-579
climate forcasts can provide early warning for conditions that favor mosquito growth rates
predict situation in Botswana based on several ocean-atmosphere models used together (an "ensemble")
malaria risk is highest in March through April following particulalry rainy Nov-Feb
more lead time and better predictions allow health authorities to spray, distribute anti-malarials, treat infected
Comparing predictions of rain using the previous predictive model (CMAP) to the new method for periods with high and low malaria - show very similar patterns and have similar predictive confidence - but the new model gives about 4 months more time
David Peyton - Chemistry
- developing new antimalarial drug
- Gates Foundation competition
Carol Morgaine - Child and Family Studies
- purification of water as one are of interest
- water bottles
- Kenya - 10 year drought pattern
