objects/hubbert.html

Resource depletion and switching

The Hubbert bubble

describes the use of petroleum for energy

rapid increase, saturation, and decline

 

Systems model for this phenomenon

cost per unit of resource is determined by demand and supply

use of the resource decreases supply

at the same time that population increases, driving up demand

the higher cost of the resource after the peak, is not sufficient to keep the resource from being totally depleted

A model of this looks like:

and output of this model looks like:

Recycling prolongs the amount of time the metal is in the economy. The above figure has 80%, 60%, 40% and 20% recycling.

 

 

Resource switching

if the supply decreases and costs increase too much, other resources may be attractive

one important aspect of resource switching is that there is a path or mechanism that allows people to switch, for example if you were burning wood in your medieval castle it would be easy to switched to using charcoal