objects/failure-to-account-for-scale.html

Failure to Account for Scale

Wolfgan Sachs - Wuppertal Institute

"American psyche is at grave odds with realistic environmental constraints"

 

1. Discounting the future

Leads to unsustainable economics

Stern report - the interest rate that we pick has huge impact on investments in the future or spending our resources now

Graedel and Allensby

discount rate A = V e ^-(1-i)*t = V* (1-i)^-t

provides "incentive to use resources as soon as possible"

 

2. Civilization collapse

Collapse is caused by not realizing that the future will include pulses and from the fundamental misconception that time is linear and constant.

"Pulsing prevails because operations that pulse transform more energy than those at steady state" Odum and Odum 2001, pg. 79

Accumulating complexity with no mechanisms for restructuring, i.e. no appreciation of the panarchy cycle.

There seems to be a controversy: does over complexity lead to collapse (Tainter) or is complexity required to deal with resource limitation that accompanies society growth? (ref Sawyer)