1. Three classes of models
a. incremental
(a little change will always result in a little response)
b.threshold models
(a little change can lead to a big response)
c. multiple stable states with a threshold
(a little change can result in a big response,
AND going back to the original condition requires an even larger remeditation)
2. Example of MSS with a threshold
a. diagram (multi-stable-states) apply to percent of wetlands
b. detour - modeling MSS with descriptions, Boolean algebra and Stella (3 models - shallow lake)
c. Amazon forest
3. Global climate change
a. multiple models
Broeker - is the trigger in the atmosphere or ocean
b. abrupt change in the past
temperature - WHOI page
c. Thermo Haline Conveyor model
circulation diagram - WHOI page
4. Management problems associated with moving toward a threshold
a. research issues of near simultaneous change across the earth from causes and effects
b. what is an appropriate response
time scale has to be soon enough
magnitude of potential damage
no-regrets policy or maybe even a win-win (game theory)
c. detection tools
getting near a threshold- spatial
Rietkerk - semi-arid land
transition from island/labrynth/pool - figure 2
getting near a threshold - temporal
that's a good question?