Lecture 2

January 13, 2005

overview

• address the question of "What factors control human population and resource growth?"

review sustainability

• draw the "system" view of sustainability

population models

• "natural" populations of animals or plants
• human populations with culture
• how we use models
  • models provide a framework, the integrated story
  • generate hypotheses
  • test predictions

Ecological growth models

• exponential models
• carrying capacity
• resource depletion and population growth
• logistic model
• overshoot or oscillations
• maximum sustainable yield and optimal sustainable yield of a population
• discussion: Malthus - was he right?

Human population growth - biological, social and economic controls

• history of cultures
  • people working together
    • forming networks
    • using common resources
    • creating institutions to deal with these problems
    • "cooperation" as much or more than "competition"
  • from Rheingold 2002
  • talking to Marc A. Smith "Whenever communication medium lowers the costs of solving collective action dilemmas, it becomes possible for more people to pool resources. And
  • 'more people pooling resources in new ways' is the history of civilization in ..." pause " ..seven words".
  • emergent behavior of cities
    • farming, commerce, protection, innovation
• energy use
• detailed story of New England - Dianna Muir
• deaths, births, immigration, emigration
  • systems model

demographic transition model

• demographic transition in Northern Europe
• factors that are related to birth and death rates
• correlations vs. causes - case study 1
  • industrialization
  • education
  • per capita wealth
• getting stuck in the transition
  • the poverty trap
• discussion: What happens to nations that are stuck in the middle

Sustainability

• two models
  • natural resources and human use for products
  • systems model from case study 1
  • what is "wealth"
• meaning of "reduce, reuse, recycle" in each case
• a third model - Odum and Odum - A prosperous way down.

Reminders

• media assignment due at the beginning of class (3 points)
• we will do the vocabulary assessment (on words from worksheet 1) during class (2 points)