Lecture 10 - Toward sustainability

March 10, 2005

1. hand back stuff and comments

2. hand in application - discuss case study

3. Lecture and lab evaluations (10 min)

4. Quiz 4

5. Sustainability - that's nice

systems view powerpoint

lecture 3

diagram - my-answer

6. transitions

• What will it take for the transition to a sustainbable economy/society/ecosystem?
• The characteristic of the transition
  • demographic transition, for example
  • case study 1
  • pos and negative feedback
  • economic factors
  • social and personal changes
  • time line
  • intergenerational change

  What causes these social/economic transitions

  • strong external forces such as energy and land use
  • strong cultural forces
  • many small forces (inevitability of change as described by Muir)
  • many small forces along many possible paths
    • science fiction and steam punk

7. Paths

• soft path
  • flexible
  • adaptable
  • micro-power generation and efficiency
• cultural changes
• technology changes
• sustainable economy changes
• solar-hydrogen economy as an example
• prosperous way down

8. Considerations

unintended consequences

• pollution
• global warming and climate change
• risks - what are they
• uncertainty

precautionary principle needs to be in play

Ethics for manipulating a system

9. What if sustainability is an emergent property

not a consequence of central planning or average economic progress, etc.

bottom-up activities that emerge into a behavior pattern at the next scale

ants, termites

Emergent structures

individual actions based on values

Threshold for participation

evidence that sustainability looks like an emergent property

what we would do differently

the role of the "observant world citizen"

What if sustainability is an emergent property?