DECEIT IN HISTORY
"Through
experimental science we have been able to learn all these facts about the
natural world, triumphing over darkness and ignorance to classify the stars and
to estimate their masses, composition, distances, and velocities; to classify
living species and to unravel their genetic relations. . . . These great accomplishments
of experimental science were achieved by men .. . [who] had in common only a
few things: they were honest and actually made the observations they recorded,
and they published the results of their work in a form permitting others to
duplicate the experiment or observation."
So says The Berkeley Physics Course, an
influential text that has been used across the United States to impress college
students with both the substance and the tradition of modern physics.1
As with nonscientific systems of belief, however, the elements insisted on most
strongly are often those with the least factual reliability. The great
scientists of the past were not all so honest and they did not always obtain
the experimental results they reported.
EClaudius
Ptolemy, known as "the greatest astronomer of antiquity," did most of
his observing not at night on the coast of Egypt but during the day, in the
great library at Alexandria, where he appropriated the work of a Greek astronomer
and proceeded to call it his own.
EGalileo
Galilei is often hailed as the founder of modern scientific method because of
his insistence that experiment, not the works of Aristotle, should be the
arbiter of truth. But colleagues of the seventeenth-century Italian physicist
had difficulty reproducing his results and doubted he did certain experiments.
EIsaac
Newton, the boy genius who formulated the laws of gravitation, relied in his
magnum opus on an unseemly fudge factor in order to make the predictive power
of his work seem much greater than it was.
EJohn
Dalton, the great nineteenth-century chemist who discovered the laws of
chemical combination and proved the existence of different types of atoms,
published elegant results that no present-day chemist has been able to repeat.
EGregor
Mendel, the Austrian monk who founded the science of genetics, published papers
on his work with peas in which the statistics are too good to be true.
EThe
American physicist Robert Millikan won the Nobel prize for being the first to
measure the electric charge of an electron. But Millikan extensively
misrepresented his work in order to make his experimental results seem more
convincing than was in fact the case.
Experimental science is founded on a
paradox. It purports to make objectively ascertainable fact the criterion of
truth. But what gives science its intellectual delight is not dull facts but
the ideas and theories that make sense of the facts. When textbooks appeal to
the primacy of fact, there is an element of rhetoric in the argument. Finding
facts in actuality is less rewarded than developing a theory or law that
explains the facts, and herein lies an enticement. In making sense out of the
unruly substance of nature, and in trying to get there first, a scientist is
sometimes tempted to play fast and loose with the facts in order to make a
theory look more compelling than it really is.
It is difficult for a nonscientist to
appreciate the overriding importance to the researcher of priority of
discovery. Credit in science goes only for originality, for being the first to
discover something. With rare exceptions, there are no rewards for being second.
Discovery without priority is a bitter fruit. In the clash of rival claims and
competing theories, a scientist often takes active measures to ensure that his
ideas are noticed, and that it is under his name that a new finding is
recognized.
The desire to win credit, to gain the
respect of one's peers, is a powerful motive for almost all scientists. From
the earliest days of science, the thirst for recognition has brought with it
the temptation to "improve" a little on the truth, or even to invent
data out of whole cloth, in order to make a theory prevail.
Claudius Ptolemy, who lived during the
second century A.D. in
For nearly 1,500 years, far longer than
In the nineteenth century, astronomers
re-examining Ptolemy's original data began to notice some curious features.
Back calculations from the present-day position of the planets showed that many
of Ptolemy's observations were wrong. The errors were gross even by the
standards of ancient astronomy. Dennis Rawlins, an astronomer at the
The
Not only questions of theft hang over
the head of antiquity's great astronomer. Ptolemy is also accused of a more
modern scientific crime\that of having derived the data that he
cites to support his theory from the theory itself instead of from nature. His
chief accuser is Robert Newton, a member of the applied physics laboratory at
In giving his date for the equinox,
Ptolemy was trying to show the accuracy of the length of the year as determined
by Hipparchus. Hipparchus too had measured an autumnal equinox, 278 years
earlier, on September 27, 146 BC..
Defenders of Ptolemy, such as historian
Owen Gingerich, claim that modern scholars are being unfair in applying
contemporary standards of scientific procedure to Ptolemy. Yet even Gingerich, who
calls Ptolemy "the greatest astronomer of antiquity," concedes that
the Almagest contains "some remarkably fishy numbers."4
But he insists that Ptolemy chose merely to publish the data that best
supported his theories and was innocent of any intent to deceive. Whatever
Ptolemy's intent, his borrowing of Hipparchus' work won him nearly two
millennia of glory before being detected.
The feature that supposedly
distinguishes science from other kinds of knowledge is its reliance on
empirical evidence, on testing ideas against the facts in nature. But Ptolemy
was not the only scientist to neglect an observer's duties; even Galileo, a
founding father of modern empiricism, is suspected of reporting experiments
that could not have been performed with the results he claims.
Galileo Galilei is perhaps best
remembered as the patient investigator who dropped stones from the Leaning
Tower of Pisa. The story is probably apocryphal but it captures the quality
that allegedly set Galileo apart from his medieval contemporaries\his inclination to search for answers in nature, not
in the works of Aristotle. Galileo was persecuted by the Church for his defense
of the Copernican theory and his trial is held up by today's scientific
textbooks as a heroic object lesson in the battle of reason against
superstition. Such textbooks naturally tend to stress Galileo's empiricism, in
contrast to his opponents' dogmatism. "After Galileo," says one,
"the ultimate proof of a theory would be the evidence of the real
world."5 The textbook approvingly cites how Galileo
painstakingly tested his theory of falling bodies by measuring the time it took
for a brass ball to roll down a groove in a long board: in "experiments
near a hundred times repeated," Galileo found that the times agreed with
his law, with no differences "worth mentioning."
According to historian I. Bernard Cohen,
however, Galileo's conclusion "only shows how firmly he had made up his
mind beforehand, for the rough conditions of the experiment would never have
yielded an exact law. Actually the discrepancies were so great that a
contemporary worker, Pre Mersenne, could not reproduce the results described by
Galileo, and even doubted that he had ever made the experiment."6
In all likelihood, Galileo was relying not merely on his experimental skill but
on his exquisite talents as a propagandist.7
Galileo liked to perform "thought
experiments," imagining an outcome rather than observing it. In his Dialogue on the Two Great Systems of the
World, in which Galileo describes the motion of a ball dropped from the
mast of a moving ship, the Aristotelian, Simplicio, asks whether Galileo made
the experiment himself. "No," Galileo replied, "and I do not
need it, as without any experience I can affirm that it is so, because it cannot
be otherwise."
The textbooks' portrayal of Galileo as a
meticulous experimentalist has been reinforced by scholars. According to one
translation of his works, Galileo reportedly said: "There is in nature
perhaps nothing older than motion, concerning which the books written by
philosophers are neither few nor small. Nevertheless, I have discovered by
experiment some properties of it which are worth knowing and which have not
hitherto been observed or demonstrated."8 The words "by
experiment" do not appear in the original Italian; they have been added by
the translator, who evidently had strong feelings on how Galileo should have
proceeded.
Unlike the textbook writers, some
historians, such as Alexandre Koyre, have seen Galileo as an idealist rather
than an experimental physicist; as a man who used argument and rhetoric to persuade
others of the truth of his theories.9 With Galileo, the desire to
make his ideas prevail apparently led him to report experiments that could not
have been performed exactly as described. Thus an ambiguous attitude toward
data was present from the very beginning of Western experimental science. On
the one hand, experimental data was upheld as the ultimate arbiter of truth; on
the other hand, fact was subordinated to theory when necessary and even, if it
didn't fit, distorted. The Renaissance saw the flowering of Western
experimental science, but in Galileo, the propensity to manipulate fact was the
worm in the bud.
Both sides of this ambiguous attitude to
data reached full expression in the work of Isaac Newton. The founder of
physics and perhaps the greatest scientist in history,
The hiatus between lofty principle and
low practice could not be more striking. As amazing as it is that a figure of
Modern inquiry raises considerable doubts
about
Scientists' cavalier attitude toward data
in the nineteenth century was sufficiently widespread that in 1830 the
phenomenon was described in a treatise by Charles Babbage, inventor of a calculating
machine that was the forerunner of the computer. In his book Reflections on the Decline o f Science in
Worse than trimming, in Babbage's view, was
what he described as "cooking," a practice known today as selective
reporting. "Cooking is an art of various forms," wrote Babbage,
"the object of which is to give ordinary observations the appearance and character
of those of the highest degree of accuracy. One of its numerous processes is to
make multitudes of observations, and out of these to select those only which
agree, or very nearly agree. If a hundred observations are made, the cook must
be very unlucky if he cannot pick out fifteen or twenty which will do for serving
up."
Most pernicious of all, wrote Babbage, is
the scientist who pulls numbers out of thin air. "The forger is one who,
wishing to acquire a reputation for science, records observations which he has never
made. . . . Fortunately instances of the occurrence of forging are rare."
As the number of scientists increased
throughout the nineteenth century, new varieties of deception came into being.
Out of competitive zeal and the battle for scientific glory grew an altogether novel
scientific sin, that of omitting to mention similar work that had preceded the
unveiling of a new theory. Because of the importance of originality in science,
tradition requires that a scientist acknowledge in his publications those whose
work in the field preceded his. The mere absence of such acknowledgment constitutes
a claim for originality. But even Charles Darwin, author of the theory of
evolution, was accused of failing to give adequate acknowledgment to previous
researchers.
According to anthropologist Loren Eiseley,
A champion of Darwin's evolutionary cause
during the late nineteenth century, Thomas Henry Huxley, made a remark in a letter
to a friend that well sums up the complexities in the struggle for recognition.18
"You have no idea of the intrigues that go on in this blessed world of
science. Science is, I fear, no purer than any other region of human activity,
though it should be. Merit alone is very little good; it must be backed by tact
and knowledge of the world to do very much." Moreover, as Darwin himself
admitted, the sheer approbation of his peers was not an irrelevant factor.19
"I wish I could set less value on the bauble fame, either present or
posthumous, than I do, but not, I think, to any extreme degree." Though
Eiseley's charges of theft are undoubtedly overstated, it is clear that
More serious than a mere breach of
scientific etiquette is the charge raised against that other pillar of modern
biology, the Abbé Gregor Mendel.
By breeding plants and noting that certain traits were inherited in a discrete
fashion, Mendel discovered the existence of what are now called genes. His analysis
of inheritance in peas allowed him to identify what he called dominant and
recessive characters, and the proportions in which these would be expected to
appear in the offspring. The elegance of his insights, culled after many years
of tedious experiment, earned Mendel a reputation in the twentieth century as
the founder of the science of genetics.
The extreme precision of his data,
however, led the eminent statistician Ronald A. Fisher in 1936 to closely
examine Mendel's methods.20 The results were too good. Fisher
concluded that something other than hard work must have been involved.
"The data of most, if not all, of the experiments have been falsified so
as to agree closely with Mendel's expectations," wrote Fisher. He politely
concluded that Mendel could not have "adjusted" the outcome himself
but must have been "deceived by some assistant who knew too well what was
expected." Geneticists who later looked at the problem were not so kind,
deciding that Mendel must have selected data in order to make the best case.
"The impression that one gets from Mendel's paper itself and from Fisher's
study of it," wrote one historian of genetics, "is that Mendel had
the theory in mind when he made the experiments. He may even have deduced the
rules from a particulate view of heredity which he had reached before beginning
work with peas."21 In 1966 geneticist Sewall Wright, in a brief
but often quoted analysis, suggested that Mendel's only fault was an innocent
tendency to err in favor of the expected results when making his tallies of
peas with different traits: "I am afraid that it must be concluded that he
made occasional subconscious errors in favor of expectation," concludes
Wright.22
Wright's exculpation of the father of
modern genetics did not win universal conviction. "Another explanation
would be that Mendel performed one or two more experiments and reported only
those results that agreed with his expectation," wrote B. L. van der
Waerden in 1968. "Such a selection would, of course, produce a bias toward
the expected values." But van der Waerden apparently saw nothing wrong
with such methods: "I feel many perfectly honest scientists would tend to
follow such a procedure. As soon as one has a number of results clearly
confirming a new theory, one would publish these results, leaving aside
doubtful cases."23
Academics may debate the precise nature
of Mendel's misdeeds, but horticulturists have long since arrived at a verdict,
if the following anonymous comment is anything to go by.24 Entitled
"Peas on Earth," it appeared in a professional journal: "In the
beginning there was Mendel, thinking his lonely thoughts alone. And he said:
`Let there be peas,' and there were peas and it was good. And he put the peas
in the garden saying unto them `Increase and multiply, segregate and assort
yourselves independently,' and they did and it was good. And now it came to
pass that when Mendel gathered up his peas, he divided them into round and
wrinkled, and called the round dominant and the wrinkled recessive, and it was
good. But now Mendel saw that there were 450 round peas and 102 wrinkled ones;
this was not good. For the law stateth that there should be only 3 round for
every wrinkled. And Mendel said unto himself 'Gott in Himmel, an enemy has done
this, he has sown bad peas in my garden under the cover of night.' And Mendel
smote the table in righteous wrath, saying `Depart from me, you cursed and evil
peas, into the outer darkness where thou shalt be devoured by the rats and
mice,' and lo it was done and there remained 300 round peas and 100 wrinkled
peas, and it was good. It was very, very good. And Mendel published."
The debate over whether Mendel
consciously or unwittingly improved upon his results cannot be resolved with
certainty because many of his raw data do not exist. With twentieth-century
scientists, it is more often possible to compare their published work with the
raw material on which it was based. The comparison is necessary because it
often reveals serious discrepancies between appearance and reality in the
laboratory. As biologist Peter Medawar observes: "It is no use looking to
scientific `papers,' for they not merely conceal but actively misrepresent the
reasoning that goes into the work they describe. . . . Only unstudied evidence
will do\and that means listening at a
keyhole."25
Consider the case of Robert A. Millikan,
a
As an unknown professor at the
The candor did not continue for long.
Millikan's rival in measuring electric charge, Felix Ehrenhaft of the
University of Vienna, Austria, immediately showed how the variability in Millikan's
published measurements in fact supported Ehrenhaft's belief in the existence of
subelectrons carrying fractional electronic charges.
To rebut Ehrenhaft, Millikan published an
article in 1913 full of new and more accurate results favoring a single charge
for the electron. He emphasized, in italics, that "this is not a selected
group of drops but represents all of the drops experimented upon during 60
consecutive days."
On the face of it, Millikan had achieved
a brilliant rejoinder to Ehrenhaft and had proved beyond a doubt the
correctness of his measure of the electron charge\all
through the sheer power of scientific precision. However, a look through
Medawar's keyhole shows a quite different situation. Harvard historian Gerald
Holton went back to the original notebooks on which Millikan based his 1913
paper and found major gaps in the reporting of data.26 Despite his
specific assurance to the contrary, Millikan had selected only his best data for
publication. The raw observations in his notebooks are individually annotated
with private comments such as "beauty. publish this surely,
beautiful!" and "very low, something wrong." The 58 observations
presented in his 1913 article were in fact selected from a total of 140. Even
if observations are counted only
after February 13, 1912, the date that the first published observation was
taken, there are still 49 drops that have been excluded. 27
Millikan had no need to worry that his
deceit would be exposed, for, as Holton notes, the "notebooks belonged to
the realm of private science. . . . Therefore he evaluated his data .. . guided
both by a theory about the nature of electric charge and by a sense of the
quality or weight of the particular run. It is exactly what he had done in his
first major paper, before he had learned not to assign stars to data in
public."
Across the
For Millikan, the battle ended in
a Nobel prize (which also cited his work on the photoelectric effect); for
Ehrenhaft, in disillusionment and eventually a broken spirit. But Ehrenhaft,
who had the more accurate equipment and made better measurements than Millikan,
may yet be vindicated. Physicists at
The example of Millikan and the
other adepts of science who cut corners in order to make their theories prevail
contains some alarming implications. Scientific history by its nature tends to
record only the deeds of those few who have successfully contributed to
knowledge and to ignore the many failures. If even history's most successful
scientists resort to misrepresenting their findings in various ways, how
extensive may have been the deceits of those whose work is now rightly
forgotten?
History shows that deceit in the
annals of science is more common than is often assumed. Those who improved upon
their data to make them more persuasive to others doubtless persuaded
themselves that they were lying only in order to make the truth prevail. But almost
invariably the real motive for the various misrepresentations in the history of
research seems to arise less from a concern for truth than from personal
ambition and the pursuit, as
The twentieth century has seen the
development of science from a hobby to a career become almost complete. Galileo
was supported in grand style by the Duke of Tuscany. Charles Darwin, born into
the well-to-do Darwin and Wedgwood clans, never had to worry about making money
from his scientific speculations. Gregor Mendel entered the Augustinian
monastery in
If the luminaries of scientific history
would on occasion misrepresent their data for the personal vindication of seeing
their ideas prevail, the temptations must be all the greater for contemporary
scientists. Not only personal justification but also professional rewards
depend on winning acceptance for an idea or theory or technique. Often an extra
measure of acceptance can be won by minor misrepresentations. "Tidying
up" data, making results seem just a little more clear-cut, selecting only
the "best" data for publication-all these seemingly excusable
adjustments may help toward getting an article published, making a name for
oneself, being asked to join a journal's editorial board, securing the next
government grant, or winning a prestigious prize.
In short, careerist pressures are intense
and unremitting. Many scientists, no doubt, refuse to let their work be distorted
by them. Yet for those who do, the rewards for even deceitfully gained success
are considerable and the chances of apprehension negligible. The temptations of
careerism, and the almost total absence of credible deterrents to those who
would cheat the system, are graphically demonstrated in the meteoric career of
that uniquely twentieth-century scientist Elias Alsabti.
Notes
CHAPTER 2
DECEIT IN HISTORY
1. C. Kittel, W. D. Knight, M. A. Ruderman, The
This passage,
together with an interesting analysis of the scientific textbook writers' use
of history, is quoted in an article by Stephen G. Brush, "Should the
History of Science Be Rated X?" Science,
183, 1164-1172, 1974.
2. Dennis Rawlins, "The Unexpurgated Almajest: The Secret Life of
the Greatest Astronomer of Antiquity,"
Journal for the History of Astronomy, in press.
3. Robert R. Newton, The Crime of Claudius Ptolemy (Johns Hopkins University Press,
Baltimore, 1977). For a summary of the argument see Nicholas Wade,
"Scandal in the Heavens: Renowned Astronomer Accused of Fraud," Science, 198, 707-709, 1977.
4. Owen Gingerich, "On Ptolemy As the Greatest Astronomer of
Antiquity," Science, 193, 476-477, 1976, and "Was
Ptolemy a Fraud?" preprint No. 751, Center for Astrophysics, Harvard
College Observatory,
5. Cecil J. Schneer, The Evolution of Physical
Science (Grove Press, New
York, 1960), p. 65.
6.
7.
Some research has suggested that Galileo could have easily carried out certain
experiments, and that historians who claim they were all imaginary are
overstating the case. See Thomas B. Settle, "An Experiment in the History
of Science," Science, 133, 19-23, 1961. See also Stillman
Drake, "Galileo's Experimental Confirmation of Horizontal Inertia:
Unpublished Manuscripts,"
8. Alexandre Koyre,
"Traduttore-Traditore. A Propos de Copernic et de Galilee," Isis, 34, 209-210, 1943.
9. Alexandre Koyre, Etudes Galileennes (Hermann, Paris, 1966). This is a reprint of three articles published between
1935 and 1939.
10. Richard S. Westfall, "
11. William J. Broad, "Priority War: Discord in Pursuit of Glory,"
Science, 211, 465-467, 1981.
12. J. R. Partington, A Short History of Chemistry (Harper & Brothers, New York, 1960), p.
170. Also see Leonard K. Nash, "The Origin of Dalton's Chemical Atomic
Theory,"
13. J. R. Partington, "The Origins of the Atomic Theory," Annals of Science, 4, 278, 1939.
14. Charles Babbage, Reflections on
the Decline of Science in
15. Loren Eiseley, Darwin and the
Mysterious Mr. X (E. P. Dutton, New York, 1979).
16. Stephen J. Gould, "
17. Francis Darwin, The Life and
Letters of Charles Darwin (John Murray, London, 1887), p. 220.
18. L. Huxley, Life and Letters of Thomas Henry Huxley (Macmillan, London,
1900), p. 97.
19. For
this and other
20. R. A. Fisher, "Has Mendel's Work Been Rediscovered?" Annals of Science, 1, 115-137, 1936. For reprints of this and several other papers on
Mendel see Curt Stern and Eva R. Sherwood, The
Origin of Genetics: A Mendel Source Book (W. H. Freeman and Co.,
21. L. C. Dunn, A Short
History of Genetics (McGraw-Hill, New York, 1965), p. 13.
22.
For Wright's analysis see Curt Stem and Eva R. Sherwood, The Origin of Genetics: A Mendel Source Book (W. H. Freeman and
Co.,
23. B. L. van der Waerden, "Mendel's Experiments," Centaurus, 12, 275-288,1968.
24. Anonymous, "Peas on Earth," Hort Science, 7, 5,
1972.
25. Peter B. Medawar, The Art of the
Soluble (Barnes & Noble, New York, 1968), p. 7.
26. Gerald Holton, "Subelectrons, Presuppositions, and the
Millikan- Ehrenhaft Dispute," Historical Studies in the Physical Sciences,
9,166-224,1978.
27. Allan D. Franklin, "Millikan's Published and Unpublished Data on
Oil Drops," Historical Studies in the Physical Sciences, 11, 185-201,1981.
28.
For an account of the Stanford discoveries see "Fractional Charge," Science 81, April 1981, p. 6.
(W. Broad and N.
Wade, Betrayers of the Truth \ Fraud and Deceit in the Halls of Science, Simon and Schuster, New York, 1982. ISBN
0-671-44769-6. Chapter 2)