CHINA: Present and Future

1. Fundamentals of Understanding China

• Geography: Many Chinas

• Politics: the party-state system; democratic centralism and factionalism; class struggle; anti-imperialist nationalism; integration.

• Economy: socialism and its dismantlement

• International affairs: from self-reliance to interdependence

• Society: cultural contrasts; population; environment; collectivism and self-enrichment; corruption; human rights

• The necessity of reform: origins of "market socialism"

2. Problems of Analyzing China

• Western political and other biases; the love-hate relationship with China.

• "Democracy," "human rights," pluralism, and other differences.

• The role of the military.

• Assumptions about the center's power, stability, legitimacy, and longevity.

•  Measuring China (men under arms, GDP, trade, Greater China, etc.

• Which China?

3. Immediate Issues

• Chinese nationalism: Has Han/Northern/inward-looking nationalism run its course, to be replaced by Southern/mercantilist (and other) regionalisms?

• Chinese power: Is China entering a new stage of nativism and militarism (national assertiveness)?

• Chinese politics after Deng: 5 scenarios

• Sectoral Evaluation of China's Rise

• agriculture: decollectivization

• the military: conversion

• industry: non-state ("private") enterprises

• trade: export-led growth; regionalization

• foreign investment trends

Sectoral Evaluation: A Second Look

·          agriculture: farmer unrest

·          the military: how much for defense? PLA intentions?

·          industry: the state-run enterprises

·          the environmental costs

·          the economy: out of control? inflation and regionalism