ASSESSING CHINA’S RISE

PROBLEMS OF ANALYSIS

· MANY CHINAS

· EMERGING INTEREST GROUPS AND PLAYERS

· NATIONALISM: THE NEW IDEOLOGY

· DIVERSE PRC INTERNATIONAL ROLES

· A CHINA IN TRANSITION

BASICS OF CHINA’S RISE

· REDEFINING SOCIALISM: RAPID GROWTH, PROSPERITY, STATUS, SECURITY

· MARKET SOCIALISM: "SEEKING TRUTH FROM FACTS"

· ONE-PARTY STATE AND “FOUR CARDINAL PRINCIPLES”

· “GLOBAL NATIONALISM”

· THE SOCIAL CONTRACT: PREVENTING LUAN, PROMOTING STABILITY, GETTING RICH

· MILITARY MODERNIZATION

· ECONOMIC RESTRUCTURING and DECENTRALIZATION

· OPEN DOOR: TRADE AND FDI REGIONALIZATION

· REDUCING POVERTY

THE POLITICAL SYSTEM

· THE CENTRAL LEADERSHIP

· POLITICAL REFORM WITHOUT DEMOCRATIZATION

· HUMAN DEVELOPMENT

· HUMAN RIGHTS

· BUREAUCRATISM

· THE CCP: PERFORMANCE AND LEGITIMACY

A SECOND LOOK

· AGRICULTURAL WEAKNESSES

· ENVIRONMENT: WATER AND FOREST CRISES

· PUBLIC HEALTH AT RISK

· STATE-OWNED ENTERPRISES (SOEs)

· FINANCIAL PROBLEMS: BANKING, TAXES

· UNEMPLOYMENT AND INTERNAL MIGRATION

· CORRUPTION

· ETHNIC, WORKER, AND RURAL VIOLENCE

· DEVELOPMENT GAPS: CENTER-LOCAL, REGIONAL

· “FORBIDDEN ZONES” AND POPULAR CULTURE

CHINA’S PROSPECTS

· POLITICAL FRAGMENTATION? CIVIL SOCIETY? ECONOMIC CRISIS? MILITARY COUP?

· INFLUENCING CHINA’S FUTURE

· IMPLICATIONS FOR DOING BUSINESS WITH CHINA

· CHINA IN TRANSITION . . . TO WHAT?